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The other battle of Newark: Survation versus Lord Ashcroft polls

June 5th, 2014

Ashcroft has CON 22% ahead of LAB: Survation make it 9%

There’ve been two Newark by-election polls both of which were started towards the end of last week. The findings can be seen in the chart above.

As can be seen the two surveys have pretty similar shares the UKIP – 28% with Survation and 27% with Lord Ashcroft.

Where the two diverge is with the LAB and CON shares. Survation has the Tories on 36% while Lord Ashcroft has ii at 42%. With LAB Survation has a 27% share against Lord Ashcroft’s 20%. These gaps are wide and one of them is going to get it very wrong today.

    Survation has LAB in with an outside chance – Ashcroft has LAB 22% behind and a share lower than the party achieved at GE10 share

These two pollsters have been the pioneers of single constituency polling since GE10 starting with the first by-election, Oldham East & Saddleworth, and have been running them ever since.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble