Watch Shadsy of Ladbrokes in this clip
Not long to go now and the polling stations will be opening in Newark for a by-election that, whatever the outcome, will make history.
Either the Tories break their terrible record of losing every by-election defence while in office over the past 25 years or UKIP break their ongoing losing sequence and actually win a seat.
The only possible other outcome that could spoil this is Labour but from all accounts they have not been giving Newark the focus required to be a serious contender.
My view is that the pressure is most on UKIP. For a failure here could change the whole upbeat media narrative that Farage’s party has enjoyed following their EP2014 performance.
It is fine having a string of good by-election second places but they desperately need a win. A poor performance here will make it easier for the other parties to dismiss them for GE15.
The circumstances of the election and the timing are ideal for the purples. A failure here, even if only by a small number of votes, is going going to take a lot the wind out of their sails.