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The ten seats most likely to be affected by immigration

May 12th, 2014

Which ones would you put on the list?

Tomorrow I’m taking part in an event at the House of Commons on the electoral impact of immigration at the next general election.

My intention is to highlight the very big gap between responses to polling questions on what are the big issues facing the country and what issues impact most on you and your family. Thus the last time that YouGov asked this 52% included it in their top three responses on the former question but only 17% raised it with the latter.

Which one of these is the better guide to election outcomes? My view is that perceived impact on your family is more important.

I have been asked to point to 10 seats where immigration is likely to be a very big issue at the election and where it could be decisive.

So I’m not looking simply for places where Ukip will chalk up big vote shares. It is where the impact could cause a seat to change hands or a tight battle to be won or lost.

One that comes to mind is Burnley which has a long history of BNP activism and which is high up on the LAB target list. In 2010 it was taken by the Lib Dems.

It would be very helpful if PBers could give me their thoughts.

Local elections and previous general election results will be good guides.

Many thanks for your help.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble