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We could be heading for GE2015 outcome that’ll appear to be grossly unfair, undemocratic and peverse

May 11th, 2014

This result could totally undermine the legitimacy of Labour’s victory

The big impact of the rise of Ukip looks set to be a general election outcome that could call into question its whole legitimacy.

    If current trends continue Ukip could end up with many more votes nationally than the LDs and not end up with a single MPs.

    Labour could come home with a substantial overall majority even though it chalked up less than a third of the overall number of votes cast.

For in terms of seat distribution a Ukip vote up to the mid-20s is only important if the party is taking more votes from CON than LAB. The big driver, as ever, is the swing between CON and LAB and in about 10% of constituencies the Lib Dems.

Taking a 15% or 20% slab out for Ukip simply reduces the overall totals going to LAB/CON/LD and standard swing calculations apply.

Inevitably a LAB overall majority with fewer than a third of the votes would lead to cries of “foul” but the blues could not complain too much. Only three years ago the Conservatives were the biggest backer of the status quo in the AV referendum.

I said they were stupid at the time because it was blindingly obvious that the main beneficiary of continuing with First Past the Post was always going to be Labour.

The Tories didn’t see it and the tone of their campaign so poisoned relations with the LDs that they were never going to get the boundary change through.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble