Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

April 2nd, 2014

But there’s still a long way to go

As regulars will know my analysis of the GE 2015 outcome is mostly focused on two key polling measures – the proportion of 2010 CON voters now saying UKIP and the 2010 LD who say they’ll vote Labour.

These have to decline if the blues are to have any chance whatsoever of remaining in power on May 8th next year.

    For the polling of the past four years has seen very little switching between the two main parties. Rather it is the impact of other movements which are driving the numbers and underpinning the LAB lead.

Thanks to the new Populus monthly aggregate we are able to track the changes with big overall samples. The movements above might seem slight but they are based on a month’s polling and from the blue perspective are in the right direction.

We mustn’t forget the massive challenge that the Tories face with the inherent advantages that LAB enjoys. The latter’s vote is more lumpy across the seats with, traditionally, better performances where it matters.

Mike Smithson

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