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If you are betting on cross-over in Q1 2014 then there are only four more YouGovs remaining

March 25th, 2014

How the budget moves fit with the overall trend

Quite a few PBers, I know, have been betting on the PaddyPower market on when there will be a crossover in the five times a week YouGov polls for News International.

Given what’s happened since the budget then their hopes might be riding high but time is running out. For there to be a CON lead only four more surveys remain. Is that going to happen?

Clearly the daily ratings can always be affected by an outlier which is why I maintain the PB Weekly YouGov averages.

    Has the move to the Tories run out of steam or will it have an ongoing impact?

A key driver of current ratings is that far fewer 2010 CON voters now say they don’t know or will not vote. In fact in today’s poll CON and LAB are running almost neck and neck on these measures after a period when the red team was doing better. There are also far fewer 2010 CON to UKIP switchers – down at just 12% this morning.

My guess is that in the short to medium term we’ll the Tories will be rataining more of its 2010 vote which will underpin a better polling position.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble