Times fromt page story on polling reaction to the budget pic.twitter.com/tvFnasDwtE
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2014
Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll, the first to be carried out wholly after the budget has CON 34 LAB 39 LD 10 UKIP 10
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014
Voters might have already made their minds up about GE2015 and there’ll be little shifting
As can be seen from the Times front page the first Budget polling by YouGov finds strong support from voters for the measures in Wednesday’s statement.
Full details from the polling are not available yet but the paper reports that The Chancellorâ€™s dramatic announcement in Wednesdayâ€™s Budget is supported by 66 per cent in the YouGov survey published today in The Sun. The poll also shows strong backing for his other measures to support savers hit by low interest rates”
This is very early days but for the Tories the edge is taken off this by the latest YouGov voting intention numbers showing no change in the gap between LAB and CON. Labour remains stubbornly in the high 30s while the Tories struggle to get above the low 30s.
This is a bit like the lack of impact on the voting numbers from the improving economy – an effect that is already being termed the “Voteless Recovery”.
I’m expecting a mass of polling over the weekend and the picture might change but very little seems to influence the voting intention position.
It is as though voters have already made their minds up and nothing will shift them. Maybe my prediction of yesterday that we’d see a narrowing will not be proved right.