Suddenly polling aggregates become all the rage: Introducing the new monthly Populus-FT polling

March 3rd, 2014

Where PB goes others follow

At the start of the year I introduced the weekly PB YouGov polling average so we could better track the way opinion was moving and isolate key segments for analysis. Well the idea has caught on and today we see the launch of the Populus online monthly polling for the FT based on an overall sample of 14,000.

The February Populus/FT numbers are in the interactive chart above as is the latest PB YouGov weekly average which will continue. The Populus numbers are based on the twice weekly poll that was introduced last July and which underwent a major weightings change at the start of February.

The FT says that “Over the coming months, Populus will track shifts in political mood – whether by gender, race, region or class – replicating the kind of modelling being carried out behind closed doors by the political parties.”

This is all good news for poll watchers and those trying to forecast GE2015. We haven’t got the detailed data yet but I’ve no doubt that when it is published it will provide a mine of information.

One thing that I’m planning to track separately are two of the key segments identified by David Herdson in his column here on Saturday – the level of switching from 2010 LDs to LAB and that from 2010 CON voters to UKIP. Both these numbers have got to come down sharply if the Tories are to have any chance of stopping Ed Miliband from becoming PM.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble