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14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could stop Ed Miliband becoming PM

March 3rd, 2014

At the weekend Martin Baxter who’s been running Electoral Calculus for nearly 20 years produced his latest polling average and projections for the general election.

The good news for the Tories is that there was slight edge back to them. Instead of a LAB majority of 66 being projected this slipped back to 58. The bad news that they are still a long long way behind.

As I’ve pointed out before on a uniform swing the blues need to be 7.3% ahead before they are winning back seats that were lost to LAB in 2010.

True the uniform swing points to CON gains from the Lib Dems but the evidence from previous elections and other polling is that these are going to be much harder to achieve than the simple UNS number suggest. Where a yellow incumbent is standing again the blues are going to struggle.

So situation normal only the time is ticking away.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble