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Falling LAB poll shares in January sees Electoral Calculus cut the party’s projected majority by 6 seats

February 2nd, 2014

This is the commentary by Martin Baxters who has been running Electoral Calculus for two decades:

“Most pollsters measured a small decrease in Labour’s lead over the Conservatives in January. But they also showed an increase in both the smaller parties’ vote, at the expense of themajor parties. However the pollsters are relatively divided about UKIP. One group (Opinium, ComRes and Survation) see a high UKIP share around 18%, but the other four pollsters report UKIP at around 11%. The net effect is that UKIP’s vote is up by 3%, their first real monthly increase since last year’s local elections.

The most recent polls from the seven pollsters who published polls in January are:

Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 30, Lab 39, Lib 13, UKIP 11
Survation (Sky News) has Con 30, Lab 34, Lib 12, UKIP 18
Opinium (Observer) has Con 30, Lab 36, Lib 8, UKIP 17
ComRes (Independent on Sunday) has Con 30, Lab 35, Lib 8, UKIP 19
Populus has Con 32, Lab 39, Lib 11, UKIP 10
ICM (Sunday Telegraph) has Con 31, Lab 33, Lib 16, UKIP 12
YouGov (Sunday Times) has Con 34, Lab 39, Lib 8, UKIP 11

Overall the average is Con 31 (-1), Lab 36 (-2), Lib 11 (+1), UKIP 14 (+3).

The new national prediction is that Labour will have a majority of 66 seats,
winning 358 seats (-6 seats since 31 December).”