Even though it’s only margin of error it will cheer the Tories
The only real changes in tonight’s January ICM poll for the Guardian are LAB down 2 with the LDs up – both moves within the margin of error.
After a poor polling start to the year the Tories will be pleased that ICM has such a close margin which will give them a boost.
Exactly a year ago the first ICM of 2013 had CON 33/LAB 38/LD 15.
Perhaps a key driver is that people are feeling more confident about their finances. 52% of voters told the firm that they were confident about their own financial position, the highest score on this question since October 2010.
Over the past nine months ICM has tended to show the weakest position for Labour and in July had both main parties neck and neck.
The firm has a very rigid turnout filter. The views of those who did not vote at GE2010 are scaled back by 50%.