Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll has UKIP on 16pc – the highest his surveys have ever recorded

January 4th, 2014

The latest Lord Ashcroft mega poll has just been published as part of a study on how the Tories could win at GE2015. The poll was carried out online amongst a sample of 8,053 more than a month ago.

Unlike the regular YouGov and Populus online polls Lord Ashcroft doesn’t use party ID weighting which tends to depress the UKIP voting numbers. To me it is striking that the 16% UKIP share is very close to tonight’s 17% share from Opinium which also doesn’t use such a weighting.

The big problem for the Tories is that even though Dave rates ahead of Ed as “Best PM” and the Tories have a lead on managing the economy a total of 37% of those who voted blue in May 2010 say they won’t next time

In his commentary on the poll Lord Ashctoft highlights the fact that many voters doubt the Tories on fairness and public services.

LAB majority drops 5% as preferred GE2015 outcome

The big change in the above chart is the 5% drop in those wanting a LAB majority and the increase in those who’s like either a CON-LD or LAB-LD coalition.

On the economy Cameron/Osborne beat Two Eds 57-43 but there is a big question mark highlighted in the following finding.

Will “Me and my family” matter more to voters than “Country as a whole”

I’m sure there are lots of goodies in the poll detail which I’ll be writing about when the datasets become available.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble 2004-2014