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Like September’s @LordAshcroft poll latest constituency polling finds bigger CON>LAB swings than current national polling

December 16th, 2013

Tonight we’ve got four new Alan Bown funded specific constituency polls carried out by Survation and the message is not good for the blues. Bown is a UKIP donor and national office holder.

Just like Lord Ashcroft’s 13k sample phone polling of the marginals in September Survation find that the Tory position in the seats is worse than in national polling where we are seeing a 6-7% CON>LAB swing. The chart above shows moves much bigger than that in each of the seats polled.

In three of them Survation finds a big move to UKIP as well. In the fourth, Crewe & Nantwich which was won by the blues in the May 2008 by-election, the UKIP surge is much smaller.

    The fact that we are getting very much the same picture from Survation as the Ashcroft polling highlights the huge challenge facing the blues.

A big reason why Bown has funded this polling and full page ads with the details in several national papers tomorrow is to get over the fact that UKIP’s new supports is multi-sourced and not just from ex-Tories as is widely perceived to be the case.

Farage’s party is getting ready to fight the blue squeeze which is expected in the run-up to GE2015.

Details of tonight’s new Bown-funded polling

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004