ConHome survey: Tory party members getting more gloomy about their prospects for GE 2015

December 7th, 2013

Paul Goodman of ConHome reports today on the latest survey of how Conservative party members assess their chances for the next general election.

The totals in the chart above aggregate those expecting a majority (now 20%), those expecting a CON minority government (19%) and those who think that there’ll be another coalition (16%).

Interestingly the 20% CON majority segment is quite close to the latest trades on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market.

The chart tracks very much the percieved impact of the CON effort against EdM throughout the summer and then the fall-back in the period after the LAB leader’s conference speech.

  • The latest from Electoral Calculus gives the Tories a 7% chance of being in government after GE2015. That, of course, is based on an average of current polling applied to all 650 seats.
  • Mike Smithson

    Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004