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Another polling blow for the Tories in phase 2 of the CON marginals polling funded by a UKIP donor

December 3rd, 2013

70% of UKIP Voters DID NOT vote CON at GE2010

After last week’s Thanet South poll there’s a second wave just out funded by UKIP donor Alan Bown and carried out by Survation.

    The picture that’s emerging is very similar to what the Ashcroft marginals poll found in September – that the Tories are faring worse in the key battlegrounds than in the country as a whole.

The focus in the latest phase was on two of the key marginals from 2010 where the Tories missed out by the narrowest of margins. Both Dudley North and Great Grimsby are in the CON top ten seats to win.

The sample size was 1076 (550 Great Grimsby / 526 Dudley North). Fieldwork dates were 18-22 November October (Great Grimsby) and 22-24 November October (Dudley North)

Following the standard Survation approach voters were asked “If that general election were to be held tomorrow, which party do you think you would be most likely to vote for in your [Great Grimsby / Dudley North] constituency” with the responses “Labour”, “Conservative”, “Liberal Democrat”, “UKIP” prompted in a randomising order, followed by “or some other party”.

The detailed polling results for each constituency with changes on GE2010

Great Grimsby: LAB 40+7: CON 20-11: LD 12-9: UKIP 23+16

Dudley North: LAB 45+6: CON 25-12: LD 2% -9: UKIP 23 +14

The striking figure with the latter is the very small LD share – down 9% on GE2010 to just 2% now. At least, for the yellows, Dudley North is not a target seat. For the Tories it is and to be so far behind will be a massive disappointment.

With these two surveys tonight we’ve now had three of the 8 polls which are being funded by UKIP donor Alan Bown. As yet we don’t know which other seats are involved.

The individual seat polls have been criticised because their sample sizes are about 500 but that reflects the challenge for the pollster in finding a suitable sample.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004