Tories close the gap to 4 with ComRes phone Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent has the Tories up 2% closing the gap with LAB to just 4%. This is near the two Populus polls on Friday and today which had 3% margins. The only other pollster to have reported since EdM’s big speech, YouGov, had LAB on 42% a full 11% ahead of the Tories. In situation like this it is hard to say which is right and…
If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Chart from @YouGov showing which groups in society Tories are seen as being close to Big challenges there See pic.twitter.com/ooPlgBzdbK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2013 New Populus online poll has Lab 39 (+2) Cons 36 (+2) LD 11 (-1) UKIP 7 (-2) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2013 Look at the unweighted/weighted contrast from Populus
The monthly Electoral Calculus general election projection is out and as can be seen from the chart LAB is given a 79% chance of an overall majority. In seat terms Electoral Calculus is projecting a LAB majority of 80 which is seven up on a month ago. The seat breakdown is CON 231 (-76): LAB 365 (+107): LD 23 (-34): SNP/PC 12 (+3): UKIP 0 (=) The key part of the Electoral Calculus approach is the assumption of a universal…
If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.
EdM gets an 8% personal ratings boost The chart shows the latest polling numbers from YouGov with changes on the firm’s last survey for the Sunday Times a week ago. The big thing is not the lead but the movement by 5% in the Labour share. This is a big conference bounce – the question is whether it can be sustained. If these numbers were repeated at a general election LAB would have a very comfortable majority. The poll finds…
What happened when voters were asked by YouGov how a CON-UKIP alliance would impact on their GE2015 preferences On the face of it this seems odd. For in the comparison standard poll CON and UKIP together had combined support of 44%. Yet just 35% told the pollsters that they would vote for a CON-UKIP alliance. What happened to the other 9%? This was the question that YouGov put after the standard one:- “Imagine that UKIP and the Conservatives agreed a…
If a Middle Ground even exists It’s been an axiom of political analysis over at least the last quarter century that elections are won on the centre ground, or, if neither of the main two parties is on that ground, then by the party nearest it. Occupying and dominating that position was crucial to Tony Blair in government and opposition, and heading towards it defined strategy for his two predecessors too. Likewise, David Cameron spent much of his time in…
Henry G Manson on the events of the week We’ve seen a plenty column inches devoted to Ed Miliband wanting to take Britain back to the 1970s by committing to freeze energy prices for two years. The title of Dominic Sandbrook’s article in the Daily Mail, ‘Miliband’s Marxist father and the real reason he wants us to drag us back to the nightmare 70s’ has a full house in the bingo game seeminlgy played by right wing journalists. Well done…