Is he really so far ahead?

According to the latest projection by Nate Silver the chances of Obama being re-elected are 68.8%.

Nate, who now writes for the New York Times, has a complex formula based on polling and economic indicators.

This latest projection comes in a great article from someone I rate highly – though I do wonder about rating chances to one decimal point.

I have changed my betting on the race. The mood seems to be swinging to Obama for the moment and I want to ride it.

One thing’s for sure – this will oscillate like crazy in the next four months

Generally there’s a swing to contenders at the time of the party conventions.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB