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The Tories up 3 – Labour down 2 with Populus

January 11th, 2010


CON 41 % (38)
LAB 28 % (30)
LD 19 %(20)

But Peter Riddell thinks its good for Gordon

The second poll of the night, from Populus for the Times, is the first to show what could be real damage from the splits over Labour’s leadership.

The figures above show the scale which will hit Labour hard because it comes from the pollster that has tended to produce the best numbers for the party and the lowest for the Tories

Indeed in the nine surveys it has carried out since the end of April the firm has only had the party at 40 or more on three occasions – the last being just after the party conference in October.

Very strangely the Times headlines the poll report “Gordon Brown’s freefall has been partly reversed, poll suggests”. Eh? I can’t quite see that.

This is a big turnaround with the highest Tory share since September. Very surprisingly veteran Times writer, Peter Riddell doesn’t quite see it like that and focuses on one or two non-standard question about Brown.

Peter – I think you’ve got this one wrong. You’ve missed the real story – the voting intention trend.

So two polls tonight – both with Labour in the 20s and both with the Tories in 40s.

POLLING UPDATE Full data tables for the PB/Angus Reid poll are now available here.

SECOND UPDATE: The Times has now changed its headline to “Poll shows failed coup hit Labour hopes hard”. That’s much better – well done guys for changing.

THIRD UPDATE: Peter Riddel has written to me to say “Sorry Mike you are wrong. You have confused the headline on the front page story-“Poll shows failed coup hit Labour hopes hard”– and one on my inside briefing on page 8- “Brown’s ratings freefall has been partly reversed” . So I did not miss the news story– it is absolutely clear from the front page story. Obviously, we had a different headline on the inside briefing story which highlighted a different aspect of the same poll.”
I am very happy to publish this – and was basing it on how the story first appeared on the Times website.

Mike Smithson