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Month: December 2009

Is John Rentoul right about June 27th 2007?

Is John Rentoul right about June 27th 2007?

Was this the moment that Labour was “doomed”? In an interesting column on electoral reform today the Indy writer who often seems to be more Blairite than Blair, John Rentoul, made the following observation:- “..I am bound by that old self-denying ordinance not to name names, but something happened on 27 June 2007. That something virtually ensured that the party was doomed at the forthcoming election…” Is Rentoul being unfair. Was Brown always doomed to defeat or are we, even…

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Is this the New Year’s message that Labour didn’t want to hear?

Is this the New Year’s message that Labour didn’t want to hear?

New Statesman What do we make of Kellner’s assessments? There’s a good assessment of the scale of the challenge facing Labour in the latest News Statesman from the president of YouGov, Peter Kellner, in which he examines the elements behind the recent revival in the party’s hopes. Kellner’s themes will be familiar to PB regulars. “The Conservatives’ poll lead has been shrinking.” “Well, up to a point….One much-reported MORI poll, in November, put the lead at just 6 points, but…

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What will this chart look like on polling day?

What will this chart look like on polling day?

whatgas.com How electorally sensitive is the price of petrol? The above chart shows the average pump price for standard unleaded petrol over the past three years and one thing is striking – the high point in price in July 2008 coincided with the Tories achieving their best poll shares since the 1980s. The price dropped sharply in the second half of last year and reached a low point in December at about the same time as most polls were pointing…

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Now the election for the PB Betting Tipster of 2009

Now the election for the PB Betting Tipster of 2009

Who is the PB Betting Tipster for 2009. Choose one. Richard Nabavi Morris Dancer The Twin Towers: Peter the Punter and Peter from Putney URW MORUS StJohn Roger ScottP    Voting starts immediately and will continue until 10am on New Year’s Day. Please note that the modestly titled “The Twin Towers” is a join entry from two of the site’s leading gamblers who have similar user names. My vote has gone to Morus (Greg Callus) for his 50/1 Cathy Ashton…

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Guest slot from Patrick on the impact of turnout

Guest slot from Patrick on the impact of turnout

Do the Tories do best if more people are voting? The chart above shows the actual number of votes cast for all parties from 1979 to 2005 and also the total of votes not cast (the paler blue line) from within the overall electorate each year. For 2010 I have assumed the current state of the polls CON 40%: LAN 28%: LD 19%: OTH 13% (at 75% turnout). Two shapes leap out: 1.The blue Tory and Did Not Vote (DNV)…

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What does the Brighton poll say about tactical voting?

What does the Brighton poll say about tactical voting?

Brighton Pavilion Poll: CON 27% (+4) LAB 25% (-13) LD 11% (-5) GRN 35% (+14) Is it about who is best placed to impede the Tories? I’ve now got the full dataset from the ICM poll of the Brighton Pavillion constituency which suggests that the party could win its first ever Westminster MP at the general election – the headline figures, with comparisons on the 2005 general election in the seat. But it’s the detail of the poll that could…

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Have Iain Dale’s voters been a bit premature?

Have Iain Dale’s voters been a bit premature?

Iain Dale’s end of year elections:- Pollster of the Year 1. YouGov 2. Angus Reid 3. ICM How could they support an untested firm? I’m sure that my friends at PB’s pollster, Angus Reid, won’t be too upset to learn that I did not vote for them as “pollster of the year” in Iain Dale’s annual elections. The Vancouver-based firm only started publishing UK voting intention surveys in October and clearly have yet to go through the process of having…

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How much will you be down on “Money Burning Day”?

How much will you be down on “Money Burning Day”?

Doctor Soup Flickr Are your end year bets as bad as mine? December 31st is generally an important day for political punters because so many bets are linked to the end of the year. And for me, New Year’s Eve 2009 looks set to be one of the worst ever. In fact I don’t have a winner but I have a lot of losers. It’s generally quite instructive to look through your losing bets to pick up ideas that might…

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