Does Labour always get a short-lived 7% conference boost?
September 24th, 2008
Is it time for punters to cash in on the annual polling quirk?
On the face of it today’s YouGov poll is great for Labour, a warning to the Tories and bad news for the Lib Dems who have seen all their gains of last week just wiped out.
In fact polls bang in the middle of conference season are usually totally misleading and merely reflect that whoever was on most recently was getting an extra publicity boost. This is largely because of the broadcasting rules that mean that the national TV and radio stations suspend their normal news judgements for three weeks. Extra time is devoted to to the party conferences which affects the opinion polls.
Things generally get back to normal in late October or early November.
Thus two years ago Labour suddenly found itself back level pegging with the Tories after Tony Blar’s final conference as leader. Before the conference the Tories had been 7% ahead; then it got to even; and then at the end of October 2006 the Tories were back with a 7% lead once again.
Last year we had the rapid change in the polls when an 11% Labour lead dropped by seven points the week afterwards before Gord made his general election U-turn. In 2005 Labour’s YouGov lead dropped by seven points between the immediate post-conference poll and the one in November.
So if the latest poll leads to the Labour spread price moving up and the Tory one moving down I’ll be back in the market cashing on on this annual polling quirk.
UPDATE: Anthony Wells makes this point about conference polls on UK Polling Report:-
“To see how ephemeral they can be we only need to look at the Lib Dem score in this poll. The YouGov poll conducted after their conference put them up 4 points to 20%, their highest score for years. This poll puts them back down at 16%, where they were before the conference season began. We’ll know the real position after all three conferences and all three conferences bounces have come and gone.”
My guess, also, is that the vast majority of those in the YouGov surveys filled in their online survey forms on Tuesday in the immediate aftermath of the speech - not yesterday when Ruth Kelly was dominating the politics news.
Mike Smithson
NOTE from robert: I will be performing some system maintenance today, including updating the software and possibly the banner too. There may be intermittent downtime today, although I will do my best to minimise it.
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Do we know how poll ratings are affected during an election. Received wisdom is that LDs do better because they get more coverage. What are the trends - anyone know?
The reason I say this is that a 7% boost during your own conference is one thing. But line up GB next to DC for 6 weeks before an election and GBs crapness would be evident.
Does anyone believe that Labour’s problem with dissent/competence/economy has suddenly disappeared within a matter of days?
2 - No.
re 1 & 2. A very large number of people have only the most minimal interest in politics and just about the only exposure they get to the political process is from the fleeting glances on TV news programmes which they barely watch anyway.
If one party has been dominating the coverage for whatever reason then we see poll ratings rise even though sometimes the coverage was negative.
The Lib Dems had a fair crack of the whip last week; this week it’s been Labour’s turn and next week the Tories. Then we’ll get back to normal.
This poll is interesting in one respect - Labour’s roof (which they apparantly have fixed up all lovely) is low 30s - this has been achieved in a poll taken in the afterglow of the post-Gordon juddergasms and with the media talking about a ‘good speech’ - it is set against the backdrop of limited Tory exposure and after 4 days of a Labour ‘beauty’ parade.
All of this reutrns DC to number 10 with a working majority.
Can Labour cling to the roof? Can they extend upwards? It seems unlikely - the ‘miracle’ comeback was a summer in the writing.
Tories likely to announce something juicy next week and extend to a 20 point lead again, with this growing as the economy crumbles around Gordon.
2
Nope,and unfortunately we are only at the beginning of the storm.
2 - Does anyone (sane) *seriously* believe that Gordo made a “good speech”?
Mike, what kind of rise do you expect the Tories to get next week? 5-7%?
I don’t think there is anything inevitable about a 7% bounce, and there was no shortage of people on this blog saying the speech was rubbish, they met their Aunt Hilda after she saw it and she wasn’t a bit impressed, etc. I recall some posts saying they thought there would be no bounce at all, and I see Marque Mark on the last thread bravely claiming it’s just statistical noise, but it’s a pretty decent swing over one week.
As I said after the speech, I thought it would be good enough to bring back people who basically wanted to support Labour and had become demoralised (e.g. Tyson), and that would put us back over 30%; others were too fed up to rush back immediately, but it would open some minds that had been closed.
But I also agree the Tories should pick up in their conference. I’d think we’ll end the conference season once things have settled down with the Tories 12-15% ahead but with less of the ‘nothing could change my mind’ certainty that we’ve been seeing in the subsidiary questions.
mike,
Would you think it possible that actually labours support hasnt changed much - just that it is a more accurate reflection.
For example you are fond of saying that Labour is always overstated in the polls and that they always get lower. Indeed the polls try and correct this.
There are various suggestions why this occure, shy tory syndrome for example. Do you think that it is a possibility that shy tory syndrome has now completely evaporated, (if it hasn’t does thsi mean that camerons re-branding hasn’t been sucessful?), and that after 11 years of gvernance - something that has never happened before for Labour we maybe even have a small contingent of shy labour supporters?
Thus i suggest that maybe the polling before was too low and that in fact labour in the high 20’s low 30’s is where they really are.
Still means that labour go down to around 250 seats - and cameron becomes PM but the polling suggesting Labour in the 100’s in well flawed?
8 Or maybe its just a post-speech afterglow
What would anyone expect a poll to show when taken in the minutes and hours after the PM has just spoken and delivered a speech that has been prepared all summer.
I’ll see your 12-15 and add 10 to both.
8. But look at the boost IDS got after his cringeworthy “quiet man” speech. Whether a party gets a conference bounce doesn’t seem to have much to do with how good a speech the party leader makes, or even whether it was a good conference or not.
10 at the end of 4 days solid coverage with the Tories off the radar
8 - as pointed out on the other thread, IDS got a 7% bounce as well.
Seems that conferences are effectively rallies these days - Brown’s missus coming onto the stage was obviously planned, but for those who just look at politics casually it made her look quite “normal” and the polls have responded.
Next week, DC will do something reasonably similar and people then will start going “actually, I prefer him instead”, hence his poll boost. Unless he comes on with Gary Glitter and a laptop computer, that is.
This is a weekend away for Labour, nothing more.
Nick Palmer you are dangerously off message here. Please remember that he Tories have not ’sealed the deal with the electorate yet’ and so your comment is really inappropriate suggesting as it does that until now the Tory lead was based on a “nothing could change my mind’ certainty…”
re 8 Nick - I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks that there would be a bounce and that we should ignore polling until the end of October. My guess is that we will be back in the 15%-20% Labour deficit territory.
But you have to agree that polls immediately after conference that have had massive coverage blocking out all the other parties are not normal. The Lib Dems in particular are hardest hit because they find it hard anyway getting any attention. In a general election campaign we have formal broadcasting rules which ensure a level of parity which is why the Lib Dems generally do better during the campaign. (But nobody but me and Martin Day are interested in the Lib Dems!!)
As to 9 - the shy Labour supporter point - this really should not be reflected in YouGov where 45% of the sample are Labour identifiers and you answer online.
With Populus and ICM there are hefty adjustments for “shy supporters” which have been boosting Labour shares by quite a lot in recent months. I don’t think that Labour are above 30% - probably at about 27-28%. The Tories are probably in the 43-45% area.
8 Nick,
I said moving less than 1 Tory in 14 back to Labour after wall to wall coverage of Labour’s conference was statistical noise.
Moving 1 in 5 LibDem’s to Labour? More significant….
8. “But I also agree the Tories should pick up in their conference. I’d think we’ll end the conference season once things have settled down with the Tories 12-15% ahead but with less of the ‘nothing could change my mind’ certainty that we’ve been seeing in the subsidiary questions.
by Nick Palmer MP September 25th, 2008 at 12:13 am”
Agreed. For once! But what happens thereafter? The economy will still be tanking, house prices will still be falling, unemployment will still be rising, and winter fuel bills will be kicking in. Then you lose Glenrothes…
Enjoy your Indian summer.
And just in case you’ve all forgotten how appalling IDS’s “quiet man” moment was, here it is in all its glory;
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=X6fjoQ_esqU
Anybody know why the Tory members kept doing to that bizarre standing ovation thing every few seconds? The whole thing was just ghastly and cringeworthy in the extreme wasn’t it?
On Spreadfair nobody has taken the £23 a seat I’ve had on offer for Labour at the 238.9 level for nearly a week. I’ve now closed that down and am offering to buy Tory seats at 346.1.
Labour supporters are not so enthused as to risk their money
Further to my point at 15 - the “shy supporters adjustment” has worked in favour of Labour in almost every ICM and Populus poll since 2004.
Cameron will be pleased with this poll as it reinforces his message about continuing to work hard and no complacency or triumphalism.
A good Tory conference followed by a poll bounce will reinforce the message further.
I expect at least two real humdinger policy announcements. One from Osborne and another from a public services shadow. I could be wrong, of course. It will be fun. Pity I can’t be there again but business contract completions can’t be pinned down in time.
GIN, you’ve got to remember that IDS was the first leader elected by the members themselves. They were in total denial, hoping against hope that he wasn’t the dud he appeared to be. Their MPs knew better and took swift action.
You saw the same sort of hysterical overreaction in the conference hall at the beginning of Brown’s speech this week. Judging by NPMP’s response above, Labour MPs are not in the mood to act ruthlessly. They daren’t open that box, they’re just going to keep on taking the money.
MikwS do you know what happened to the expected ICM Guardian poll?
Mike,
Thanks for your answer - don’t dispute it - can you tell me the machanics of how irt works please?
I only thought Labour got marked down?
23 Sounds Polish, Mike Smiithson it should be addressed to. Apologies.
Brown is now exactly where the Tories want him to be in the polls: unpopular enough to lose a General Election, but not so unpopular as to lose Labour Leadership. I’m expecting an assuming, statesman-like speech from Cameron, maybe not even mentioning Brown, together with some populist rabbits to be pulled from other front-bench Etonian top hats. Bring on Purnell? - he relates to the Cameroons enough to be able to worry them, just as Cable understood Brown well enough to slay him with a sentence. Brown is paralysed by his hatred for that Notting Hill set, whereas Purnell seems energised.
22. Yeah, they were in a terrible state of denial. I think, as bad as the 1995 local election defeat was, as bad as the 1997 and 2001 general election defeats was, THIS was the ultimate low point for the Tories in their wilderness years. This was the point where I really was wondering whether they would ending up slipping behind the Lib-Dems. Thank god the MP’s intervened and installed Michael Howard.
Mind you, IDS did give me a good laugh at the time. I had been ill with a really nasty virus for about six weeks when he made this speech, and I think it was the first time I actually laughed out loud in all that time. Unfortunatly I was laughing at him, not with him.
“ABC News’ Tahman Bradley Reports: A senior University of Mississippi official reacted Wednesday to the news that Sen. John McCain R-Ariz., wants to postpone Friday’s presidential debate, saying that such a move would be “devastating” for the university which has already invested millions in preparation for the debate.
Andrew Mullins, special assistant to university Chancellor Robert Khayat, told ABC News that the Ole Miss campus has been transformed to accommodate the candidates and the press. Road blocks are in place on campus and in the community and the debate television set for the candidates has already been constructed. He said the university has spent roughly five and half million dollars getting ready for the debate.
Mullins also noted that if the Commission on Presidential Debates asks the campus to hold the debate at a later date, he is not sure the university would be able to accommodate them.”
Five and a half million! That’s going some for two guys being asked questions!
18: ‘Anybody know why the Tory members kept doing to that bizarre standing ovation thing every few seconds?’
Apparently there were stooges dotted around the audience who leapt up like jack-in-a-boxes at pre-ordained moments. And it sounds like Gordon had the same strategy in place yesterday in case his speech bombed.
26. Purnell is perfectly summed up by a phrase in The Thick of It. “A brushed aluminium cyber-prick”.
29. Really? I never knew that it was staged thing. Didn’t they realise how completely fake, OTT and cringy it was going to look, to keep giving him an ovation after every other sentence?
Brown tryed the same? Doesn’t surprise me in the slightest.
28. Another urban myth, I’m afraid, Robusticus. There was one overenthusiastic ‘presentation specialist’, good old Chalky, who jumped up and down a lot, but the reaction in the hall was genuine. Hysterical, but genuine, honest.
Caveman
Sorry I left the thread to do something else as it descended into yet another hilarious bout of partisanship with apparently neutral, sensible posters letting their reality out.
Economy and markets: This current problem seems to have come in stages, like steps down whilst usually these things have more rapid fall, like off a cliff. Here’s my worry..that cliff has still to come. I weatched the markets Friday then over the weekend it became obvious there was trouble brewing.
I personaly am not wholly convinced this Paulson plan, huge in its magnitude was the way to go but what is has done is now create an almost make or break feel and one with a very short timeline. Now either these guys know scary things we dont, or in how theyve played this plan it actually brings the cliff closer if they fail or indeed just take time getting it passed.
Some plan will appear but I think the market needs a shake out and its essentially a cushion as it should be and a few things need to fall. The desperately short timeline thing though, like a few days scenario is odd from where im sitting.
What it does politically though is show George Bush doesnt have a party in Congress.
Some possible Options:
A plan gets agreed very fast and passed. Markets rejoice but fundamentals of economy and mood of consumer and business buyers remain downward..this in turn sends the markets down again soon enough for a period until what goes down goes back up again.
Plan fails totally, markets crap themselves and heavy statutory and central bank intervention still doesnt hold back big falls even if certain in trouble concerns survive. Crash. Real economy already problematic gets worse.
Plan fails, the finance industry gets its act together and hammers out its own plan (though probably with central bank support). Keeps the madness away but economic fundamentals mood and cycle still down thus markets eventually reflect that until cycle changes up again.
Plan doesnt arrive by say next week. Do markets panic? I have no idea.
re 24. Go to the ICM website and find a recent poll then click on the “detailed data” tab. Then you will see an excellent explanation of how ICM polls are compiled including this element.
re 23 I wasn’t aware that an ICM survey was taking place.
It’s all kicking off again at Labour HQ. They just can’t help it…
http://tinyurl.com/3tbj65
PS a sample quote from the above Guardian piece:
‘”Let’s face it, the speech was boring,” one senior ministerial figure said. Another was more generous, describing it as one of Brown’s finest. But he added: “The overnight events mean that he is now back to square one. He will be toast by Christmas.”‘
lol. N’nite.
“Mr. McCain said that after speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York on Thursday, he would return to Washington to work on the bailout package”
(New York Times)
So John McCain has to go to Washington to save the world. Only not today, can’t miss the interview with Katie Couric. Tomorrow is also pretty bad, the Bono photo-op can certainly not be cancelled. So Friday. Friday is like, just right.
It’s just amazing.
31: ‘…but the reaction in the hall was genuine. Hysterical, but genuine, honest.’
Okay, I wasn’t there, so I’ll take your word for it. But the story about the audience being massively infiltrated with cheerleaders had considerable currency at the time.
Mike S someone said they had been polled by ICM late last week or at the weekend. Someone else suggested the Guardian would usually publish tomorrow.
The last three Guardian’s have been survey dated by Anthony Wells as on the 17, 20 and 22 of the month. So on that basis one should be around now if not earlier.
Did they hold off as it was bad for Labour as their conference began - or the opposite. You see we all get into conspiracy theory in the end.
Conference bounces so far (all polling by YouGov, dates are conclusion of fieldwork):
baseline (12/9, Sunday Times): C 46, Lab 27, LD 16
after LD (19/9, Telegraph): C 44 (-2), Lab 24 (-3), LD 20 (+4)
after Lab (25/9, The Sun): C 41 (-3), Lab 31 (+7), LD 16 (-4)
So a 5 point bounce for the Tories would make the net result of the conference season virtually zero.
37. I was there and was in a position to know. However, it is quite likely that the false tale will be the one that ends up in any obscure history books that do cover the IDS story.
Per Daily Telegraph:
“Hank Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, is understood to have rejected a request for a meeting with Gordon Brown, delivering a snub to the Prime Minister during his visit to America.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3074014/US-Treasury-Secretary-Hank-Paulson-rejected-Gordon-Brown-meeting.html
Interesting Kaletsky article on the rescue “plan”:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article4820549.ece
40: ‘…it is quite likely that the false tale will be the one that ends up in any obscure history books that do cover the IDS story.’
Perhaps in thirty years time, a history student, having decided to base his PhD thesis on a subject no one else has done (’The rise and fall of Iain Duncan Smith’), will be looking at these threads in the British Library archive, will see your post and the truth will at last be out there!
43. I’m sure Baskerville is being straight with us, but intuitively I still find it very hard to believe that it was spontaneous. Even if the timing of the ovations wasn’t precisely choreographed, there must at least have been a vague plan of ‘we’ll get to our feet at regular intervals’.
38.One poster said they were polled last Thursday by ICM, it might have been a private one, but with the timing I assumed it was their monthly tracker?
John Retoul on Open House Blog asks Whose side is Gordon on?.
“To sum up, the Labour conference conformed to historian Robert Conquest’s Second Law: Every organisation appears to be headed by secret agents of its opponents. It could not have gone better for David Cameron if Conservative Campaign HQ had organised it.
The speech given by David Miliband, Gordon Brown’s possible successor, fell short of expectations, while the Prime Minister’s own was one of his best. I’m not saying I liked it, mind you. I’m with Ben Chu on the awfulness of being introduced by his wife. And I did not like the “no time for a novice” line. I thought it was demeaning and un-prime-ministerial to include a coded insult to a Cabinet colleague.
I also disagree with the instant assumption that it was embarrassing for Miliband to have been overheard worrying about a “Heseltine moment”. I think Miliband’s line ought to be that, yes, he would like to be prime minister one day and that, as Tony often said about Gordon, that is “not an ignoble ambition”.
As it is, though, the net effect of the week is to weaken the man who is Labour’s main chance of limiting the damage at the next election, while giving a breathing space to the leader taking the party to all but certain crushing defeat.”
44.The grassroots who voted for him were willing him on to succeed.
The coup came from the Parliamentary party and caused a lot of anger and bitterness amongst the grass roots, in fact the party were lucky something like ConHom did not exist at the time.
Perhaps they were hoping they could clap him off the stage.
Incidentally there’s an article in the Guardian about how the centre-left across Europe can’t stop losing elections. To some extent that would be a fair enough point, but the timing is more than a little odd given that the left unexpectedly swept back to power in Slovenia last week, and are expected to hold on in Austria in a few days’ time.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/25/eu
“I don’t think that Labour are above 30% - probably at about 27-28%. The Tories are probably in the 43-45% area.”
Mike - what about Smithson’s First Rule? Doesn’t that give the Tories 52% and Labour 24% or thereabouts?
What are the odds on Millipede being the next party leader?
What are the odds on Millipede being the next PM?
What were the odds a week ago?
What are / were the odds for Centipede?
—–
If the opposition in Ashfield is split between Con and Lib Dem, then it could mean Labour coming third, rather than squeaking through the middle to win.
Brown? Cameron? Clegg?
I intensely dislike all three, so…..
Would somebody explain to me what possible difference the next Prime Minister will make to my life? Please. Please.
Malcolm
don’t you live in north Dakota Malcolm?
I say let Labour enjoy a solid 7% bounce from the most reliable pollster. Such a bounce takes them into the low thirties. If they are satisfied with that by all means stick with Gordon.
If Gordon Brown were replaced then at least we’d have something new in the dreary boring old strip of pictures in the titles at the top of the page.
9 - To be fair a poll taken the day after a leader’s speech is normally as good as it gets. Wouldn’t you agree, Nick?
56 - Yes but if it was the Milliboy then Mike would have too many demands to change it frequently to the latest silly face.
Greetings from sunny Lithuania, where my early morning start was accompanied by Mike Smithson on CNN! Looked good to me- I hope you have mega-server capacity for US election night!!!
re 56. Don’t worry - a new masthead is on its way and doesn’t have pictures of any politician on it.
The possible quick ending of Gordon’s leadership has caused us to put extra effort into revising this key part of the site.
The problem with putting people’s pictures on is that they change so much - I hope the PB community will like the new solution which should be up in a day or so.
I think it needs repeating that this isn’t a seven pt bounce. It is the reversal of the 4pt Liberal bounce + a 3pt Labour bounce (that’s assuming no sample variance). Labour seem to be taking too much comfort from their relative position (compared to other polls) rather than their absolute position.
They are ten pts behind at the most favourable polling time. The fact that they were 17pts behind a couple of days ago doesn’t change that.
It’s quite sad in a way that Nick is trying to sound optimistic by the polls stabilising at 12-15pt deficit a maximum of a year and a half before an election (therefore having probably lost what is the major reason for Govts “closing” before the election - ie. the ability to call a poll at a time favorable to them.)
It seems that Labour are still in denial that they won the 1997 election with a majority of 160 not a majority of 30.
O/T NZ NEW ZEALAND election.
By coincidence, I’m in Auckland right now, and so - ever mindful of the necessity to keep pb.c-ers well-informed - I’ve asked a few people the following question: “Do you think Helen Clark [of the NZ Labour Party] is going to get thrown out” [she's been in power for maybe 10 years.]
I’ve only asked five people, but you’ll soon see that really there is no point in asking any more. These were the replies, verbatim:
1. “I hope so!”
2. “I hope so!” Yes, honestly, the very same words.
3. “I think so.”
4. “I think you have to go by the polls.” (in which she is expected to lose)
5. “I hope to hell she does, or I’m leaving the country!”
So there you have it! My totally unscientific megapoll. There’s still a few pounds left at about 1.35 on Betfair. Go and grab some free money!
Mike, rather than the masthead, isn’t the most pressing issue on the site the fact that whenever we have a big event - C&N by-election, local election, Gordon’s speech - the site can’t cope with the huge traffic spike and crashes for a few hours? It’s often at a very sensitive time for betting. With the US debates and election itself upcoming, there seems to be a real risk that the site will be offline again at those crucial moments. Any comfort you can offer?
An ICM poll does seem overdue, according to ukpollingreport the survey end date is usually the third Sunday of the month (fourth in the case of June which had 5 Sundays). So we’d have normally had a poll published early this week. If someone was polled last weekend, is it possible they’re splitting the surveying and doing a “before and after” poll? Although it would make more sense to close the poll a few days late, after the Labour conference.
For once the BBC seems to be reporting the YouGov poll, it’s on Ceefax at any rate, I can’t find it on the website and domestic politics seem to have disappeared from the main news. I thought the BBC had a policy of not reporting opinion polls. Or does this policy go out of the window when they’re (relatively) favourable to the Labour party?
All this entrail-gazing. Couldn’t it just be that all these polls are a lot less accurate than those who peddle them would like to believe, and always will be whatever ‘tweaks’ are applied? They spatter close-enough about the true eventual result often for those peddling them to continue to perpetuate the con. So long as there are insecure politicians with (other people’s!) money in their pockets the polling industry will continue to prosper.
John [52] many of the delegates were wearing badges at the Labour conference with a statement of their byelection expectations. GO 4th
67.
“GO 4th”
So that’s Bloo Labour coming behind Tories Lib Dems and the SNP!
Meanwhile, Chammie’s bag-men have been out scouring the streets of Manchester looking for used policies to recycle next week.
Marquee Mark: as technical administrator for the site… I can assure that plans are being put in place for November 4.
Firstly, we will be upgrading to a new version of Wordpress (the software used for this blog). This may well happen this weekend, otherwise it will happen in early October when I am in the US on work. (Hotel room, nothing to do, update pb.com software.)
Secondly, we will be moving to dual server system. Currently the web-server and database are on the same machine. I already have a new machine at the datacentre, and - as soon as I have time - I will set it up. When we move to a dual server system we will get a great deal more reliability.
Thirdly, there will be a general optimisation of Apache and mySQL settings.
Sorry about the problems we’ve had the last few weeks, but please remember there is no professional administrator, just me, a fund manager with a lower second in Philosophy…
67. John [52] many of the delegates were wearing badges at the Labour conference with a statement of their byelection expectations. GO 4th
True, and on the reverse of the badge;
And Multiply
re 63. We are looking at an answer to dealing with massive levels of traffic that we see occasionally.
Brown’s speech increased traffic, causing by people constantly refreshing, by 5000%.
One thought is to have an overflow site where people would go when the site goes down. This would instantly take pressure off the main server and would help us to get back up faster on the main site.
I’ll be trying something like this during Cameron’s speech next week.
69, 71 Excellent news. Would hate the site to become a victim of its own success.
5,000%?!? Sheeesh!
70 “And multiply”
I think Labour’s bigger problem is going to be the long division!
FTSE 5080, will go thru 5000 within a week.
Bradford & Bing down 8%, new all time low. Going going………..
74, B&B’s credit rating with Moody’s and Standard and Poor has been reduced. Doesn’t look good.
I wish they’d save money by taking that annoying woman in a bowler hat off the airwaves in a vain effort to drum up business.
69 robert. Have you factored in the massive output from my ARSE in the lead up to November 4th ??
jack w, mike and i are working on a secret plan (called project immodium) to deal with you…
76
Buy to let = buy to regret
69 & 71 - Robert and Mike. Have you considered the potential for auto updating comments using AJAX or some such?
This is the solution that Kos uses to stop people constantly refreshing, and it appears to work. Sure they have more server architecture behind them, but their visitor numbers must be huge, and not a single one of them are sitting there pressing F5 every few minutes.
77 robert. I knew you’d both have a firm hand on the situation !!
Palin on the economic crisis from her interview with Kate Couric - this is the interviewer John McCain cancelled Dave Letterman for:
http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/09/24/palin-meets-couric/
Didn’t Mary Warnock have some suggestions the other day that might solve the “Jack Problem”.
Involved disposing of those who were a burden on their loved ones.
It’s general election night I worry about.
New SUSA poll for Maine :
McCain 44% .. Obama 49%
Note - Only age demo McCain wins 18-34 by 49%/37%. Bonkers.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3ea1b43d-0776-48f7-b545-6515576915bc
Recently the polling results for You Gov and ICM have got closer.However there is still a difference- a higher labour vote c +2%,lib dem +3%,con -2%,Oth -3%.
If these figures are aapplied to latest you gov it would give 39%,33%,19%,9%- a lead Of course fieldwork for ICM and You gov might be different which can skew this. By the way why is ICM so late.?
rogerh
81.
Cringe, Cringe, Cringe!
“my understanding is…. my understanding is…. As Senator McCain has said…. as Senator McCain has said…..”
“Multi-faceted solution……”
Examples of being pro- firmer regulation?
“I’ll tradoo fand sum and I’ll bring them two ya”
Could even be Cameron in drag?
Can anyone advise me on this betting scenerio? If the Tories win a majority of between 1-50 I make an £800 profit, hung parliament small profit, Labour majority or Tory one over 50 is £275 loss. I want to cover the Tories getting over 50 seat majority, whats the most sensible way of doing this? (thanks for any help!)
Vote Lib Dem?
57: mirthios - generally I agree the optimal moment is the afterglow of a leader’s speech, if it’s well-received. Normally, though, the afterglow takes a day or two. The YouGov poll was made known barely 24 gours after Gordon sat down, which has to mean that it was initiated instantly and closed by the following morning, so some of the respondents won’t even have heard the speech and most won’t have read the favourable press coverage in the morning. So my guess is that the actual peak will have been a bit higher, say 34%. But of course I expect the Tories to claw some back next week.
The groups in the audience who did standing ovations during GB’s speech loooked pretty spontaneous to me - someone would sert it off by standing up, followed by his neighbours, and then it would either spread to other blocks of seating (as during the NHS tribute) or not, but it looked pretty random. You don’t really have to have an elaborate plan to get Labour Party conference delegates to be eager to applaud.
Obscure technical point: are YouGov confident that the subgroup of their panel who reply to surveys eithin 24 hours are representative? No idea what sort of bias it might introduce, but worth a thought. Have past quickie studies shown notably different results from others taken at the same time?
87.
Persuade J K Rowling to donate £2million to the conservative party!
How fortunate for Labour that they had hit almost their low ebb with YouGov in the poll prior to this one - it allows for some pretty spurious media coverage about ‘boosts’. Still, Brown has shored up the crumbling remains of Labour and his major speech, his triumph and the gushing intro from his wife have allowed Labour to soar to the unprecedented heights of slightly less popular than Major’s Tories ‘97
Re IDS - I was there too, and Chalk certainly wasn’t alone. Late on the eve of the speech on an obscure landing in the bowels of the Imperial Hotel, I came across Chalk coaching his group of 20 or so placemen on the signals he would use and the behaviour expected of them. They were the accelerant that lit the fire. I’ll agree the members in the hall were combustible, but spontaeous enthusiasm … no.
I really like the spin on here - obviously the Polls are still terrible so the spin is that they got it wrong and should be better for Gordon.
Polls are a snapshot - they are always right for that point in time. Why are we so bothered about a bounce recognised as something that is a glitch every year.
89. Are you forgetting that yesterday’s political news was dominated by Kelly’s resignation and all the conspiracy theory about that..plus a number of commentators have actually come down to earth and realised how vaccuous the speech really was.
Of course with a nod to Smithson’s laws ther is also the strong possibility that this was just a rogue in Labour’s favour. I can understand your wishful thinking but having read your comments this time last year you will allow us to treat your judgement on polls with sceptiscism.
I think DC will be more than happy that he is still 10 points ahead and well into overall majority territory after Broon has thrown absolutely everything he has at the Conservatives and before his own conference. I think he will be even happier that the parliamentry lemming party looks intent on keeping Broon.
93 - Some of us are not.
87, could you lay them winning a 1-50 majority so that you’ll end up less green for that (obviously) but neutral or slightly green for +50?
Labour have the Catholic vote sewn up!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/25/anglicanism.catholicism1
Let’s see now does that mean a Royal, (If a real goodie) could be in line for canonisation, they used to be didn’t they.
Good ramping in evidence from the lefties on the site. My calculations give Labour 247, Conservatives 342, Lib Dems 29, Others 32. So the Lib Dems are down at 29 seats before the Tory conference. A further 5% bounce for the Tories at their conference would result in a further 8 Lib Dem seats turning blue, leaving the Lib Dems at 21.
Could this be Camerons strategy? To kill off all the other parties in the medium term? I think he knows he will annihilate Brown in an election fight. Recent polls show a majority between 32 and 200 seats. I would have thought he wouldn’t want to poll better than this against Labour until it is too late for Brown to be replaced (say 6 months before the next election) then pull out all the stops to destroy them as a party. Doing this too early might backfire; by easing up now he is just saving up material for the final few months of Browns government.
In the meantime, the Lib Dems have been stalled on 30 seats for some time (except perhaps in the post Lib Dem conference poll). The resurgent Tories have reduced the Lib Dems to a poor sideshow to the main event, again he would probably be satisfied with 30 Lib Dem seats at the next election so has no need to attack the Lib Dems either.
He seems to me like a man 1 mile ahead at the three quarter point in a marathon, knowing he has a faster finish than the rest so cruising while the 2nd and 3rd place runners are expending all their energy (red faced and sweaty) but failing to meaningfully close the gap in any way. He may also appreciate (unlike Brown) that most of his energy will be required once he has won the race; Brown expended his chasing Blair for so many years.
89 so some of the respondents won’t even have heard the speech and most won’t have read the favourable press coverage in the morning.
Nor indeed would they have heard of Ruth Kelly’s resignation or of the rumours behind it.
A poll showing a working Conservative majority is “great” for Labour? Shows how far they’ve sunk…
99 you mean ‘to spend more time with her family’?
Its not even trying to cover it up is it? She couldn’t have been more plain if she had done the quotey fingers thing as she gave her reason, lol.
And on the lighter side of the news, the jolly nice and non-authoritarian a***hole Labour party unveil their identity papers plan later on - I understand it involves some Labour party officials dressed up in jackboots kicking the crap out of actors who have left their papers at home. The actors will (tis rumoured) then be locked up for 42 days to teach them to act more convincingly.
102, aye, they’re starting on Johnny Foreigner. And then the Jews. Or is it teenagers? I forget.
What I do remember is zat insolence vill not be tolerated!
Despicable scheme. I just don’t see the point of Labour. They lied about a referendum on Europe, they’re more authoritarian than any government I know of in recent British history, they’ve taxed the poor to pay the middle classes, the economy’s going downhill. They’re incompetent AND unpleasant.
103 next thing they will want to do a Hank Paulson and a blank cheque for £1 trillion be handed to Badger to ’sort out’ the economy.
Authoritarian, incompetent, unpleasant, despised, reviled, ridiculed - Delegates, I give you my husband and your PM, Gordon Brown!
103 - The ID scheme is being rolled out to those who can’t say no first. Foreign students and foreign husbands, wives and civil partners. Take this card or our totector will connect with your rear end. Next tranche will probably be the old and the sick, who will be told that unless they take the card they won’t get any money etc.
105 naturally, the rotting corpses in the street don’t count if tey are not registered on the central database and hold a valid citizens identity card - they are just background noise.
101 It’s “To spend more time with Spikey Chain Thing” http://tinyurl.com/3urroq
Let Labour give ID cards (actually biometric visas, since the NIR isn’t up yet) to non-EU foreigners; let’s see what happens with airport workers next year, given that the TUC has finally grown a pair and pledged to oppose the scheme.
My passport doesn’t expire until 2017, Mr Palmer. You want my fingerprints before then, don’t expect me to surrender them willingly!
I need to lie down, Tony King saying good things about the Conservatives..
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/2172021/the-tory-lead-is-more-solid-than-you-might-think.thtml
108, I renewed my passport before I needed to give over my fingerprints, iris scan and sperm sample precisely to avoid the possibility of the state demanding them. Happily, seems that Labour are destined for annihilation next time round.
The Daily Mash on the ‘Bush Bail Out’
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/market-bail%11out-thwarted-by-powerful-soup-kitchen-lobby-200809251280/
Check this out..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/24/john-mccain-cancels-lette_n_128998.html
John McCain plays hooky from Letterman to, er, ‘Save the Economy’..
and gets caught out playing truant.. absolutely hilarious..
As others have pointed out, Labour is trialling ID cards on those who can’t say no.
But the TUC *has* said no, thankfully.
A bit afraid to post after all the compliments yesterday
What strikes me is not that Labour has got a bounce after conference - that’s expected - but the reversal in expectations from last year when Cameron was the one who had to deliver a leadership saving speech and Brown was sailing ahead in the polls.
Conservatives and most commentators expect Cameron to deliver another poll changing speech and the Tory bounce to take them back to heady poll leads. This expectation in itself is a danger - a good speech will be disappointing, only a great speech will get press plaudits. The economic crisis is a difficult background and Cameron needs to answer the “novice” charge and drive home the “didn’t fix the roof” claim. Taxes, public borrowing, mortgages, debts aren’t the stuff of sunshine and hope for the future but Cameron needs to remain the optimist choice while identifying the serious reforms he will deliver as PM.
Brown’s speech, while not great, succeeded in placing question marks against the Conservative Party’s claim to be ready for power - I think Cameron, Osborne and co will have a harder task this weekend and next week as a result, with a more sceptical press and expectations of a great conference are perhaps too high.
noisy summer - depends on what odds and stake you are playing with, but I’d ‘Buy’ Tory seats at the current Sporting Index price of 352 (which is a 54 majority) or 349.9 on Spreadfair (which is exactly the level you want, but you have to put money up first).
If you buy at these levels, if the Tories win more seats than that, you win, but less than 50 majority will eat into your £800 profit, and failure to win a majorty could cost you a lot of money.
Spreadbetting is fantastics, but will mean supplying a lot of info, as it is regulated by the FSA, not the Gambling Commission. Also, may have to leave a big deposit, and the risks are bigger, as are the rewards. Be careful, and read Mike’s book first.
(NB - I’d expect the buy price to rise once the Tory conference starts, so if 50 seats is the relevant level, I’d move this weekend.)
Meanwhile …. speculation bubbling about McCain’s droopy left eye :
http://www.americablog.com/2008/09/draft-anybody-else-notice-anything.html
114. Mike’s theory is the more people see Cameron, the higher his opinion poll ratings go. This has been borne out over the past few months, and having him plastered all over the tv for a few days should help the tories go back up again.
A politicshome panel poll on Brown’s speech.
http://www.politicshome.com/#3188
p.s.
Does anyone else have problems with PH links? They often jam up!
118
Only took u thru to site.
PoliticsHome
The PHI100 did not predict a great performance from Gordon Brown before the conference season. Neither have they judged his speech as particularly sublime, but he did exceed their expectations.
Two weeks ago, the PHI100, Britain’s most authoritative survey of expert and inside political opinion, were asked to predict Gordon Brown’s performance at the Labour party conference. Out of ten they predicted a very mediocre 4.9.
But the PM pulled it out of the bag somewhat, performing considerably better than expected. His speech has been given a rating of 6.6, bettering the panel’s expectations by 1.7.
Those on the left of the panel graded the PM considerably higher than other panellists with a admirable 7.4 out of 10, up 1.7 from their predicted 5.7. The right leaning panellists gave him a more critical 5.7 (up from 4.4) and the Lib Dems 6.6 (up from 5.1) It was the non aligned panellists who were most surprised, they predicted only 4.5 but gave the PM a sterling 7.1.
One non aligned panellist showed their surprise saying the speech was “quite a change from his normal strategy of boring the audience into submission”.
While one parliamentarian from the right, who ranked the PM a respectable 6 out of 10, seemed to prefer the cameo made by the PM’s wife: “I assume you mean Gordon - I would give Sarah 9 out of 10!”
On the whole, Gordon Brown can take heart from this result. The panel predicted Nick Clegg would deliver a score of 5.1 and following his speech gave him a score of 5.2. They have predicted a score of 7.1 for Conservative leader David Cameron, and after Brown’s performance, he is going to have to live up to his expectations if he wants to out perform his rival.
I think the idea that the Conservatives will have a bad conference and somehow let Labour back into the game is wishful thinking. There is no reason why they should have a bad conference or why Cameron, a far superior orator than the likes of Brown, Clegg or Miliband, will produce a poor speech.
The economic issues will naturally be addressed and initiatives proposed. Cameron may have less experience than Brown but ultimately Brown is complicit in causing this crisis and failed to do anything to prevent it. Stressing that point, alongside some practical measures to assure longer-term stability, shouldn’t be too taxing.
The Conservatives have been very quet for the past few weeks, only appearing in interviews when necessary - I think it’s called “keeping your powder dry”.
New EPIC-MRA poll for Michigan :
McCain 38% .. Obama 48% .. Barr 1% .. Nader 2%
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26875816/
116. Good Morning! I see Jack, that the left are now going in for witchcraft. BOOO!
121. Yes, a poor strategy, if you ask me.
ChrisM I agree. I don’t hold with this “less experience” rubbish being thrown around about Cameron. Saddam Hussain had more experience of running an economy than Brown has - does this mean we should have voted for Saddam had he run in a UK election?
Notice Brown never says he has experience, of running an economy well, just that he has experience.
Actually, Saddam probably would have done better than Brown. And they seem to have similar policies on freedom of the individual.
124 - Yes, they should be running around shooting themselves in the foot, like Milliband.
117 - I have to agree with this - in a line up who would you pick - not wobblychops that’s for sure. I have problems with Clegg because he is a bit to obviously pro europe for me - i liked charles kennedy much better. Cameron is the best in a line up and obviously Alex Salmond is very charismatic too - which could cause problems for Labour in Scotland.
124 - Maybe they want a bit of a Brown bounce, so he is kept in his job until the next election.
124 - Worked last year!
126. Nobody could ever be like the Millipede, who has shown what he really is at conference. An Insect!
Labour are back to doing what they do best: fighting like ferrets in a sack:
“Friends let it be known that she (Kelly) had grown disillusioned by Mr Brown’s failings. They claimed that his Tuesday speech had left her ‘disgusted’ because, she believed, it presented a dishonest image of Mr Brown as a reformed character.
‘The fact is we all know Gordon cannot change, that he is a divisive, tribalist politician who cannot get on with his colleagues. The idea that he has turned a new leaf is a sham,’ one said…..”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1061489/BENEDICT-BROGAN-A-night-drink-fuelled-confusion-leaves-Labour-party-brink.html
A government tearing itself apart. What a bloody shambles.
“He (Brown) thumbed his nose at City workers yesterday in his Manchester speech, claiming that those who argue for the dogma of unbridled free market forces have been “proved wrong”.
It’s hard to argue that free markets are not to blame for the current turmoil. But in countries such as the UK, our markets have never been more heavily regulated. Whether it’s company law, tax law, employment law, health and safety law or the rules and regulations laid down by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) – if you’re in any kind of business here, you’re heavily into the compliance business as well.
In the crash that Brown alludes to, regulation has failed as much, if not more, than markets themselves.
He calls for global standards and supervision in financial markets which is logical given the borderless nature of capital. But in agreeing to these he risks undermining the UK’s authority and jurisdiction over companies based here. Before the foul-up Brown oversaw surrounding Northern Rock, people spoke of the “regulatory dividend” enjoyed by the City of London. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/damianreece/3069887/Gordon-Browns-settlement-leaves-us-with-no-influence-where-it-counts.html
124, we can only assess the strategy once the results are known.
As it stands, the Tories have a 10 point lead following a fortnight of blanket coverage for their opponents.
I hope they produce an innovative economic policy (fuel duty would be my pick), and remmeber that last year’s united front yielded enormous dividends.
‘I think it’s called “keeping your powder dry”.’
That really worked for Kerry in 2004, didn’t it?
YouGov ;ast year showed an change of Con +9 Lab -5 LD - 4 after the tory conference which would put us back to Con 50 Lab 26 and LD 11 which is about where we started off - what I don;t understand is why the Tory Party conference is last
134 - Yeah but Kerry never got to a point where he wasn’t keeping it dry. At some point you need to tell your platoons “you can burn powder”.
The front pages of the popular press were dominated by ‘the kiss’. I think Brown will receive a short-term boost as he came over as a shy, hard-working guy with good intentions and a rather attractive wife who loves him. People responded to this.
However, plenty of other people regard him as a dithering bully. The economic fundamentals are unchanged if not worse. His critics in the Labour Party have not been silenced and the Party looks divided. Come the middle of October, when the dust has settled, I can’t see why the polls should be substantially different from those in the middle of September.
89 - Nick P - Oh dear, one of the few times I have agreed with you and you start to argue!
@ 57, I simply quoted you:
“To be fair a poll taken the day after a leader’s speech is normally as good as it gets.
by Nick Palmer MP September 25th, 2007 at 5:56 pm”
O/T - Proof that some members of PETA are insane.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/3078474/Ben-and-Jerrys-urged-to-use-human-breast-milk-in-ice-cream.html
134 - and also we don’t live in the US. The UK voting public are rather more enganged and intelligent than their US counterparts.
Oh dear. If NBC viewers are anything like representative of the US public as a whole, McCain might spend a long tim regretting this stunt.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/24/1441286.aspx
I have to say as soon as I heard about this Macca tactic I thought, ‘knowing Americans, they won’t like this as as rule they like a fair fight and believe strongly in fair competition’.
Starting to work on the basis the missus won’t be getting a bumper birthday present on the back of my McCain winnings.
New SUSA poll for Delaware :
McCain 37% .. Obama 57%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=41cfe074-2567-433c-908f-7fddbc73664d
135. I’m not sure it always comes last Chris : I think they take it in turns but could be wrong.
135. The order of the conferences rotates each year.
144 - No they don’t
144 - No it doesn’t. It’s always LD, Lab, Tory in that order.
New SUSA poll for Massachusetts :
McCain 39% .. Obama 55%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f10184be-cb08-49ac-a711-0a345de81ca1
147 - I see the youngsters of Massachusetts are slightly more in line with expectations than those of Maine! Did SUSA in Maine decide to conduct all their 18-34 interviews at the local gun club?
116-Jack W-not worthy of you-I hold you in higher esteem than this,but when you start siding with UK PAUl as on the previous thread I start to have doubts.
It seems serious dissembling is not restricted to the Darling Brown axis.
This quote from the Telegraph is amazing as southern Europe is awash with Mickey Mouse mortgages to foreigners to buy dodgy overpriced property:
“The situation we face here in Europe is less acute and member states do not at this point consider that a US style plan is needed,” said Joaquin Almunia, the EU’s economics commissioner, in a tense session at the European Parliament.
“We didn’t have subprime mortgages. We do not have investment banks. In any case, it’s not up to the EU; it’s up to every one of the member states to decide whether they need to launch this kind of fiscal initiative.””
Same solution too, you will note. For the Darling Brown pair it is all the fault of America. For this clown it is all the responsibility of the national banks.
All power to the EU Commission all responsibility for the consequences to the national governments.
Nick Palmer deserves much credit for posting here and facing people.
I’ll admit that up until Browns speech, I was convinced there would be no Labour poll bounce - the conference was seriously anal and many taking part seemingly in denial of the reality of the publics mood while not addressing some real concerns out there.
The general impression was, ‘what are you all moaning about’ along with, ‘the Tories will eat your kids and rob the poor’. Away from the Labour core support, people just aren’t listening to that message anymore.
However, at the last hurdle, Brown didn’t screw it up and as expectations were basically zero or less, a solid speech (in terms of saving his political skin) saved the day and poll taken in the afterglow was realistically going to show a 5%-10% boost.
I stand by my feeling that Labour are in very serious trouble and that there are cracks being papered over within the cabinet / party that will cause damaging infighting at some point soon. Everyone knows it’s there, we’re all just waiting for it to kick off.
I believe the Conservatives are going to base their whole conference on promoting themselves as a Government in waiting. There is also a reason why Cameron and Co have been quiet of late. Labour and the Lib Dems should be very worried indeed.
If they have a good conference and further convince those giving them tentative support, we could see a historic poll rating in the mid 50’s.
Glad to know it is not just me who doesn;t know - I would think the party who goes last should enjoy the benefit longer than the others.
152 but can never seize the initiative as easily….
thats the payoff
151 - I agree - the Lib Dems were low teens before their conference so a bounce to low 20’s was as much as they could achieve - so what?
Labour were low twenties so a bounce to low 30’s was as much as they could achieve - so what?
The Tories were mid 40’s so could achieve a bounce to mid 50’s. I think this would be curtains for Brown, mean an election in 2009 and a Tory government for the next 20 years.
re 103 and when they do start on the foreigners let’s not forget Niemöller’s poem
Als die Nazis die Kommunisten holten,
habe ich geschwiegen;
ich war ja kein Kommunist.
149 david l. And the substance of the issue ??
re 110 me too, the chip in my passport is NEVER going to contain any biometric data.
139 - I think that’s pretty smart of PETA. I don’t think they’re seriously advocating it, but they’re trying to latch onto the ugh reaction that the story of the Swiss restaurant evokes and associate it with ice cream.
Greetings from sunney Barcelona, mes hombres.
What´s all this about McCain not showing up on Friday? Este loco?!
I posted this last night:
“I’m going to start with a prediction - the foreign policy debate will go ahead as planned on Friday.
Why has McCain done this? I hate to say that it is not because of a deep concern about the US economy - and nor do I hold that against him. This is a Presidential election, so it’s fair enough that some politics is getting played.
Debates are all about managing expectations - both sides trying to make it easier for their guy to be considered the winner *under the circumstances*.
The first debate is foreign policy, and the Obama people got the ‘public speaking isn’t the same as debating - Obama struggles in debates’ line out early. Essentially, McCain is going to struggle to be the clear winner because it is his specialism, and Obama’s expectations are low.
By calling for a postponement, it makes Obama’s camp seem eager for the debate, belying that he is useless at them. It also forgives any mistakes or underwhelming performace by McCain because ‘he was in Washington helping the economy, so was under-prepared’.
This is classic expectations management, brilliantly executed, and Obama is walking into it. The only way to make this play well is to accuse McCain of chickening the debate.
by Morus September 24th, 2008 at 10:43 pm”
Cancelling Letterman only to go straight onto Katy Couric’s show was a colossal mistake - a $5,000-a-time make-up artist doesn’t say economic struggle either. McCain needs to come out and say he ‘asked’ Obama to postpone, Obama has refused, so McCain will attend, but only once he’s done Washington and the Economy.
The Letterman attack was wounding, because it brings into play the idea of the VP as the stand in. Why can’t Sarah Palin run the campaign in your absence? Why can’t Sarah Palin go to Washington and force a deal? Why can’t Sarah Palin and Joe Biden debate foreign policy on Friday? Is she ready to stand in from day one if you are not available? If not, how can she be Vice-President?
I think McCain has done her a great disservice by suspending his camapaign - try to postpone the debate to ease expectations, fine, but don’t screw your VP by making her seem unable to cope on her own, when in fact she’s been carryoing the campaign since you announced her.
157 — then renew yours ASAP, even if there’s time left to run on it, and advise your friends to do the same.
160 Morus. Scanning the American MSM won’t be too digestable for McCain over the breakfast waffles.
I’d also like to have seen the collective jaws drop in the team McCain when that SUSA poll hit the wires …. a whole 10% agree his decision to cancel the debate !!
Do people really think the Tories will get a statistically-important bounce from their Conference? If we mean they reverse the Labour bounce, then maybe, but I simply cannot see them breaching the highs reached prior to the conference season kicking off. They are starting from a higher base with Labour less in the duldrums than before Brown’s speech. They might just hit 50% again, but personally reckon will just go back to 47% or 48%
162 - The McCain campaign must have done internal polling though, right? In my post yesterday, I assumed this tactic was focussed on the debates and expectations management, and therefore brilliantly executed.
If genuinely postponing the debate and suspecding the campaign is a more general tactic, it is poorly thought-through and I can’t quite believe he’s been allowed to do it, unless there is another reason for not going ahead.
163. I think they’ll bump back up, then it will settle down again to the figures before the conferences.
I’m going to be updating the Wordpress software, and probably also updating the template. If your comment gets lost in the process, I’m very sorry. It’s nothing personal.
163 depends what they present - the only real hit Brown cn score is around ‘novice’ and there are the lingering comments around lack of detail.
If the Tories present as a credible government then they will soar - people need little encouragement to abandon Jonah and co these days, and rightly so.
Expect some well placed surprises, some firm commitments and a generally positive message.
163 - If the likes of Clegg and Brown can achieve a conference bounce with their uninspiring clap trap, surely a very strong performance from Cameron could give him a massive poll boost. Even an average Cameron performance will be better than we have seen from the others so far. I think a week of news coverage on teh “next PM” can only help him.
163 - I agree but they have the final say, the opportunity frame the season. If they announce a few more popular policies, seem like a government in waiting and labour continue to fight, who knows? The thing i noticed about labour conference was the delusion that because they have nice policies they will be supported when the public realise - it doesn’t matter that we cant run anything
163 - I think I agree, they probably won’t hit 50% but then the real movements in polls will possibly occur after the PBR which will be very nasty.
156-Jack W-Who gives a toss about McCain’s droopy left eye.Iv’e also noticed an increasing air of triumphalism in your posts together with a touch of nastiness especially re Weathercock referring to him as a “troll”just because he does’nt agree with you so you throw a “wobbly” & refuse further debate which is a bit puerile.For a senior citizen I thought you might show a bit more stature than this.Or am I missing something.
david l; to be fair, weathercock does think that Obama is (to use his own words) an “al Quaeda sleeper”.
That’s a pretty serious allegation (and one without any proof). Some - including me - would argue that’s it is trolling.
Needless to say, between now and November 4, there will polls putting Obama ahead, and polls putting McCain in the lead. Triumphalism on either side is pretty unattractive.
Robert - I think there is a strong chance of McCain not regaining sufficient momentum again to even closely challenge Obama’s lead after the events of the last few days.
171 david l. My dear chap I don’t do “wobbly” or “triumphalism” and as for “weathercock” I refer you to the reply at 172 from the Honourable Member for Server Cock Ups Central.
Incidentally, Bradford & Bingley have closed a mortgage processing centre, cutting 370 jobs in the process. Share price 9% down.
154, 163 - I cannot see the Tories getting a boost to mid-fifties post conference. The trouble they it that have nothing much to say about the credit crisis etc. Osborne is a bit a waste of space on this issue. Now Cable has more to say but does not get the exposure. Anyway Cable is on QT tonight. Who else?
172. I have money on Macca and am starting to wonder whether there actually will be another poll putting him ahead. I think this debate chicken stunt looks like it could blow up in his face. As a rule, the US public don’t take kindly to a sicknote.
132 Brown conveniently blames the dogma of free markets when it suits him in 2008. However in June 2005 just after the general election he conducted a fire sale of state owned assets including the USA based nuclear power station builder Westinghouse then owned by British Nuclear Fuels. At the time the Treasury justified the sale by saying it wasn’t appropriate for the state to be involved in running the nuclear sector. Yet 3 years later he “encourages” British Energy to be taken over by EDF which is 85% owned by the French Government.
@ 98 (Albion Till I Die): good post, I think you make some interesting points there.
I notice there has been a tendency by desperate Labour types over the last three years to assume, at every stage, that Cameron has now played all his best cards. They assume that he will simply stand there, a nice stationary target, doing nothing further to improve his position, while Labour gets to pick him off and snatch victory from the jaws etc in 2010.
It seems to me that this is arrant stupidity and complacency of the crassest kind. Cameron is clearly a master strategist in that he’s engineered a three-year ascendancy over Labour interrupted only briefly by Broon’s honeymoon. He ended that honeymoon with last year’s tax announcements, and in so doing, ended Broon’s personal and political credibility for ever more. He has also effectively defeated in advance every possible Labour alternative to Broon.
These clowns really have no idea of the quality of the opposition they face. I have been reading recently an account of the battle of Britain called The Most Dangerous Enemy. The arrogance and complacency of the German commanders, as the real professionals quietly and without fuss eviscerated them, reminds me powerfully of Labour today.
164 Morus. Oopps nearly missed you post.
I don’t think they had time for internal polling. Likely this little plan was hatched up on the hoof yesterday morning and all present thought it a really jolly wheeze. Oh dear ….
I think to be fair the tories are reflecting prior to making announcements. I think the short selling thing while populist was short sighted by government. A) not their remit (FSA) B) why has this not happened before since GB chancellor for 10 years C) not actually effective. i.e. how can they stop it? Another example of Labour soundbites which they cannot do anything about (british jobs for british workers, ending child poverty which is assessed relatively)
98, 179: Quite so!
New thread - YouGov polls and Guardian readers
172/174-noted however a bit more decorum/respect would’nt come a miss.
184 david l. One of the reasons why this site is so well regarded is that we broadly repel the loony tunes and their fellow travellers by the simple expedient of the calling them out and then refusing to engage them. The trolls neither deserve “decorum or respect”.
114.”Brown’s speech, while not great, succeeded in placing question marks against the Conservative Party’s claim to be ready for power - I think Cameron, Osborne and co will have a harder task this weekend and next week as a result, with a more sceptical press and expectations of a great conference are perhaps too high.2
Ted, you are on the money with that assessment. These days Gordon Brown’s stock is so low that a mediocre performance at PMQ’s or a good speech is over hyped, Cameron has always IMHO had to produce at least a B+ regularly to even get faint praise from some in the media.
Hypothetical question.
What would the consrvative lead be if their leader was William Hague??
In retrospect — I actually think Hague is the best among them all — Genuine guy imo - very clever - good traditional self-help background — Decent guy - irrespective of party……. Best PM we never had?
I might even vote for them !!!!
SBS - hope you are recovering well. I have doubts on a mid fifties boost but more because I sense the media situation is different. Last year the press was in a Labour Conference that became a Gordon love in, with Gordon & Sarah portraits, a very egotistical speech from Brown, strictly controlled and ultimately stifling to the media.
They then found themselves in a completely unexpected Tory conference, much more open and less managed, with Osborne, Hague and other Shadow Cabinet members making major contributions, much more collegiate. After Labour in Bournemouth this change in atmosphere made them much more receptive and less critical than they might have been.
This year the press has been at a Labour Conference riddled with behind the scenes activity and scheming, with a Gordon survives narrative to end it. IMHO the press will be much more critical and less receptive to David & co this year.
159 Hi PtP, Do you have any half decent bullfighting bets for us?
176. Hope you are getting better mate.
The Tory poll bounce could be interesting, suppose it depends on whether the Labour splits/resignations continue.
121.
“The Conservatives (are)“keeping (their) powder dry”.”
No market for it in the Westminster pub loos when it’s claggy.
Gordon Brown denied his party a competitive leadership contest to replace Tony Blair because he claimed he’d been promised the job many years ago. During his honeymoon period as Prime Minister he justified his leadership by soaring opinion poll leads. When his opinion poll lead disappeared he justified his leadership upon his ability to regain a lead over the Tories. Having broken the post-war records for most unpopular Prime Minister he has justified his leadership by the need for stability due to the “credit crunch”. It is clear, the underlying theme this man’s life is the denial of the democratic impulses our country. At heart Gordon Brown would rather play the dictator than the man who relishes and thrives upon scorching fires of democratic life!
It should be noted “having experience” means very little these days other than one is old! For the experiences to have a value it must eliminate ineptitude, incompetence and fire-fighting when doing actions. Otherwise one’s experiences are worthless. I’m sure most will conclude Gordon Brown’s experiences fall into the category of worthless!
I think Gordon Brown has earned the accolade of being the worst Prime Minister this country has misfortune to see on television.