…or will the price slip further Following the decline of the Tories in the spread betting markets and the new version of the Martin Baxter seat calculator with a tactical unwind element a number of people have asked whether we consider that the party is now a good buy. We think that the current spread level is based on the depressed opinion poll ratings for the party and the ongoing poor publicity that Michael Howard is getting. We do not…
Will Martin’s new calculator change the way we look at the election? The former Cambridge and now city mathematician, Martin Baxter, has produced a new version of his famous Commons seat calculator to build in an element of tactical vote unwind. This is the effect that a number of experts think might happen as a result of Lib Dem supporters returning to their normal allegiance after switching to Labour in 1997 and 2001 to get the Tories out. If this…
The Tory rollercoaster continues to fall With the Tory buy price on the spread markets down to 197 seats – just 32 more than the 2001 General Election total – the question of whether there will be another Tory calamity depends on the outcome of a battle in which the party will hardly be involved and over which, like William Hague’s rollercoaster in the picture, it has little control For the real issue that will determine whether it is Blair…
What happens when the money runs out Apart from George Bush no American has had a greater impact on UK politics in the past year than Dick Morris. He was the election strategist who masterminded victory for President Bill Clinton, and was hired to be the brains behind the United Kingdom Independence party’s campaign at the Euro Elections last June. His involvement was first noticed by the then Observer columnist, Nick Cohen, who more than two months beforehand wrote this…
UKIP will get less than 2% of the national vote The UKIP threat to Michael Howard’s party at the General Election could be blunted by the rules which determine how the broadcasting organisations are allowed to cover the campaign once it has been declared. For although these have yet to be finalised they will almost certainly follow previous practice and allocate the lion’s share of election broadcasts to those defined as “major parties” – Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats and, in…
In his attempt to pull off an unprecedented and spectacular third General Election victory Tony Blair is making crime/law & order/ and immigration the centre pieces of Labour’s policy portfolio. These were the main items in the Queen’s Speech last month and they are the centre part of his New Year’s message, just published. Before the 1997 Election Blair had the brilliant “Tough on Crime – Tough on the Causes of Crime” rhetoric to underpin his appeal to both the…
One of the great pleasures of political gambling is when you find situations where whatever happens you end up a winner. With the news in the Sun today that David Blunkett will return to the Cabinet if Tony Blair wins the election then an interesting situation opens up. The current best price on Blunkett returning during 2005 is 4/1 which, given the Sun’s status as almost the “official mouthpiece of New Labour” for such things, makes that the best bet…
The recent speculation that Tony Blair is thinking of a snap election in the first quarter of the year has had no impact on the betting markets. The price on the election being in the April-June period of 2005 has barely moved from the 1/6 to 1/5 region and you can still get 15/2 on the poll being before March 31st. In a good analysis of the election date options the Independent columnist and former Tory MP, Michael Brown observes…