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Category: Boundary Reviews

Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote

Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote

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It could be more significant than tax credits The House of Lords revolt on tax credits has got a huge amount of attention.  Less newsworthy, because it didn’t succeed, was an attempt in the House of Lords to delay the introduction of individual electoral registration by 12 months beyond the government’s proposed timetable.  The implications of that vote, however, may be more far-reaching.  What effect will it have? This post is going to be both long and technical.  That is…

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Continuing his series on the boundaries Antifrank on the role of the Boundary Commission

Continuing his series on the boundaries Antifrank on the role of the Boundary Commission

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The body that will oversee the shake-up In my last two posts, here and here, I’ve looked at the likely impact of the boundary review and considered how the parties might wish to see those boundaries fall.  To date I haven’t really looked at the role of the Boundary Commissions at all.  This is a serious omission. In fact, it will be the Boundary Commissions that determine the constituency boundaries. The parties can make representations but the Boundary Commissions will have…

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Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries

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Antifrank looks at the art of changing boundaries In my last post I spent some time looking at the likely impact of the impending boundary changes on the numbers of seats in different regions and the potential impact on the seat numbers of different parties.  In this post I shall look at how the detail of the boundary review might assist or hinder the different parties. National party strategic considerations In the boundary commission review in the mid-1990s the Conservatives…

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Guest slot: The boundaries of reason

Guest slot: The boundaries of reason

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Antifrank looks at The boundaries of reason: the possible shape of the 2020 election I previously looked back at the impact of demographic changes on party politics from 1992 to 2015.  That’s all well and good, but what changes can we expect for 2020?  To determine that we first need to consider what the new boundaries are likely to look like. It might be thought that the future musings of the Boundary Commissions are imponderable, but we have quite a…

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How Scotland and the LD collapse almost completely reverse the bias in the electoral system

How Scotland and the LD collapse almost completely reverse the bias in the electoral system

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The dramatic shift in Britain’s political landscape As we all know one of the constants in British politics over more than a quarter of a century has been that the electoral system has been “biased” towards Labour. Essentially for a given vote share the red team will have more MPs than the blue one. Well the big news from May 7th is that that is all over and now the Tories will get more seats for an equal vote share…

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If the boundary changes had gone through the result of GE15 would be less of a cliff-hanger

If the boundary changes had gone through the result of GE15 would be less of a cliff-hanger

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Jesse Norman – the old Etonian MP who led the 2012 CON backbench rebellion on House of Lords Reform pic.twitter.com/61siWbjrar — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 Did old-Etonian Jesse Norman cost his party the election? On July 11th 2012 David Cameron was seen to be having a furious row with his fellow old-Etonian, Jesse Norman, who had just led the successful backbench revolt against planned House of Lords reform. Cameron knew very clearly what this meant. The boundary changes,…

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The Christmas Game: Part II

The Christmas Game: Part II

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Many thanks to Harry Hayfield, for providing the fun for Christmas Day. Below are the The Google Earth outline of five UK parliamentary constituencies. Can you guess what those constituencies are with the only clue being all the maps are aligned North to South, The answers will be posted later on this evening, the answers to the previous thread are. Number One: Tyrone West, Number Two: Blaenau Gwent, Number Three: Ogmore, Number Four: Glasgow East, Number Five: Leicestershire North West Enjoy guessing six to ten….

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The Lib Dems are in no mood to change their leader

The Lib Dems are in no mood to change their leader

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Nick Clegg appealing to delegates at LD conference to back him on economy pic.twitter.com/ILLwDLrkgE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2013 Clegg looks safe until GE2015 If there was going to be a threat to Nick Clegg’s leadership at the annual conference in Glasgow it was going to come in this morning’s debate on economic strategy. There was a very strong move to oppose official policy but in the end the votes went with the leadership. It was an easy…

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