So much of the current electoral analysis is based on the premise that the battle will just be LAB vs CON. This is part, but only a part of the story, because to stay in power the Tories have to ensure that they keep their seat losses down to 46 and they will be fighting to defend in three main areas. Firstly there is Scotland where the Tories will be defending 6 seats and where their opponent will be the…
It all depends on how many CON losses All of the discussion after the Chester by-election about whether LAB can get a majority is irrelevant to whether SKS moves into Number 10. The big issue is the Tory seat total. Sunak or his successor will have to relinquish power if his party loses enough seats so that they don’t have an effective majority taking into account, of course, a possible arrangement with the DUP. Their problem is that the Tories…
I would like to bet on England but even after yesterday’s match, I remain unconvinced. Alas if they do beat France next weekend the odds will be a whole lot tighter than they are at the moment. Mike Smithson
I think the betting markets have got this right and that LAB is in with a very good chance of winning most seats at the next general election but at the moment an overall majority.is rated as an evens chance. Ever since the complete collapse of the party in Scotland at the 2015 General Election what is now Starmer’s party has always been in a very difficult position. it will be recalled that at the 2010 general election LAB took…
What is dominating US politics at the moment is the runoff election on Tuesday between the final two contenders in the Georgia Senate race. This is happening because of a Georgia state law that requires a candidate in an election to secure more than 50% of the vote something which did not happen in the midterms on November 8th. In that situation then the top 2 in the ballot go forward to a runoff election. A victory for Warnock would…
The seat was CON at GE2010 The result of the first Westminster by-election since Sunak became prime minister came in the early hours and the result is above. Essentially the outcome is in line with the current opinion polls which have seen the Tories slump although there has been a modest recovery in recent weeks. This was the first by-election of Sunak’s premiership and if there were hopes that the new man would herald a change of fortunes for the…
Will the Tories be doing better or worse than the polls Above is a table from David Cowling showing the detailed results of the Chester constituency since the 1992 general election. For Sunak this is his first Westminster by-election test. While victory looks remote he might find some comfort if the swing against the Tories in a real Westminster election is not as great as the polls. It will also be a good pointer for him if the swing against…