politicalbetting.com

The incredible thing is that this poll came out less than three months ago and an enormous amount has happened in the intervening period. The same poll had Truss and Starmer level pegging on the “Best PM” question. One of my 2022 bets that did not work out was on the Tories getting a poll lead in September. My reasoning was that the new leader would get something of a honeymoon and that would be reflected in the voting intention…

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GE2019 CON “don’t knows” are likely to return to the fold As can be seen in the betting chart above Labour is now rated as a 50% chance on the betting markets of winning an overall majority at the next election. I think this puts too much of a gloss on the Labour position because punters are overstating it’s chances and understating the Tory strength. It is the GE2019 Tory voters now saying don’t know that are the issue. The…

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There is a lot of speculation this afternoon about the future of the Windsor MP who this morning was declared bankrupt over debts of £1.7m owed to the Inland Revenue. Being bankrupt of itself does not lead to an MP having to quit. Under the rules sitting MPs who are declared bankrupt have to step aside if a bankruptcy restrictions order is made against them. These can happen if the bankrupt refuses to cooperate with the process. There is no suggestion…

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Wes Streeting has established himself as one of LAB’a most effective communicators and the above Tweet is on the face it impressive. It all comes down to money and the solution is one that sounds plausible and also takes a poke at the PM and his family. For non-dom status is a device used by Sunak’s wife that is said to help her to save millions of pounds in tax on dividends collected from her family’s IT business empire. Getting…

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The Royal Family favourability numbers from YouGov Mike Smithson

My views: The election date is probably right but I am part from convinced that Rishi Sunak will continue to be Prime Minister after the next general election. The Tories have generally in the past been successful in demonising whoever the Labour leader is as a means of frightening the public. In recent times that worked with Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn but is Starmer such an easy target? Also Sunak with all his riches has very little in common…

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If it’s a disaster then it should be portrayed as Tory disaster Ever since he became leader of the Labour Party in 2020 SKS has sought not to say or do anything which could be interpreted as seeking to undermine the referendum result. Maybe in the immediate aftermath of the last election that was probably a good strategy but since then things have changed quite dramatically. We are now seeing how not being in the EU is impacting the economy….

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Mike Smithson