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This adds to Sunak’s problem The latest polling on the nurses strike should really worry Ministers because the scale of the backing from the public it’s really quite remarkable. The other factor that makes tonight’s survey problematic for the government is that this backing is increasing. Sunak has yet to show how effective he is in dealing with huge industrial disputes that could have great ramifications the many people. A problem is that giving special treatment to the nurses would…

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Sums up the whole tournament

Inevitably after the very strong performance in the by-election yesterday the money has been going on LAB to win most seats at the next election. Certainly, the message from the December by-elections is very strong for LAB but both of them have been in seats that were already held and where the Tories were a long way behind. A better test would be in a CON held seat where the majority was under about 10k. Here the evidence from this…

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It is hard to read anything into this that we didn’t know beforehand. The Tories are struggling and Labour is benefitting but the turnout was far less than we see in normal council elections. The 10.4% CON to LAB swing was broadly in line with recent national polls but markedly smaller than in Chester two weeks ago. None of the parties put any real effort into this because the outcome was a foregone conclusion. The 25.8% turnout compares with the…

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One thing that we know about the by-election tonight in the seat of Urmston and Stretford is that there will be a low turnout and that LAB will win. The vacancy has occurred because the former MP has become Deputy Mayor of Greater Manchester My guess is that the turnout will be somewhat lower than we saw a fortnight ago and we might see the Reform party doing somewhat better. This will be the second of three elections in North…

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Even CON voters have him in negative territory Of all the leader ratings formats the one I like the most is on favourability and like to think that PB played a part in YouGov’s development of this tracker series. The latest numbers are above and can be seen Starmer comes out best but he’s still in negative territory, slipping back from a net minus 6% to minus 10% . But he’s still getting better numbers than any of the Tories….

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As ex-President Donald Trump seeks to return to the Oval Office, 31% of registered voters have a favourable opinion of him, while 59 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him – the lowest favorability rating he’s received among registered voters since July 2015, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll just released. Among Republican voters, 70% have a favourable opinion of Trump, while 20% an unfavorable one. This is the lowest favorability rating among Republican voters in a Quinnipiac University…

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