The Telegraph thinks Johnson can turn Tory fortunes round
I’m sure Starmer would agree
Are the Tories too far behind to recover?
Near certain defeat seems to face Sunak’s party In an analysis in the I the prominent political scientist Professor John Curtice suggests that the Tories might be too far behind to stage a meaningful recovery to avoid being defeated at the next general election Things went very wrong for the party in the aftermath of the mini-budget last September and as the polling shows the Tories are still a long way behind since in spite of staging a little bit…
2022- the year when British politics reached “Peak Madness”
Betting now on Trump for the WH2024 GOP nomination seems crazy
One of the moderately busy political betting markets at the moment is on who will win the Republican nomination for the 2024 White House Race. Currently ex-President Donald Trump tops of polls and also the betting where he’s rated as a 30% chance. I think those being tempted have got this one wrong especially as we know that the formal nomination and likely betting payout will not be until August 2024. There’s a lot of political campaigning and other issues…
Happy Christmas everyone
The 19th Christmas Day on PB
Labour has been edging back in Scotland
I have long held the view that Labour’s chances of ever securing another Commons majority were completely smashed at the 2015 General Election when they saw their position in Scotland totally obliterated. They went into that election defending 41 of the 59 Scottish seats. They ended with a single MP north of the border and things haven’t really changed since. So the polling trend in Scotland as seen in the Wikipedia table above is fairly encouraging for Starmer and his…
LAB’s not taking enough of the GE2019 CON vote
Why we should be skeptical of the LAB leads? The above chart is based on detailed data of the GE2019 CON vote from the latest PeoplePolling survey. A big thing that I would worry about if I was a LAB strategist is the relatively small amount of the Tory vote last time that is now voting for Starmer’s party. A big driver of the don’t know/won’t vote segment could easily fall back in an election campaign. Indeed for this reason…
Now we have polling on who’s been the “PM of the Year”
This year will go down as one which has seen more changes at Number ten Downing Street than just about anybody can remember. This has prompted the Manchester-based pollster Omnisis to include a question that I’ve never seen before – “Who has been the best PM of the year”? This was the outcome: Our inaugural PM Of The Year decided by the voting public. It’s a strong showing for Boris (28%), less so Truss (1%), & Rishi (19%) came in…