I am publishing the above simply because it is useful to have a reference point about where the betting stood in the key markets at the start of the year. I am far from convinced about the American bets because there is such a long way to go and normally at this stage we have no idea who might be putting themselves into the frame. As to the next UK General Election I think that Starmer will be the prime…
The last year has seen 6 parliamentary by-elections of which just two saw a change in the party holding the seat. The first at Southend West wasn’t contested by the main parties and was filling the vacancy created by the murder of Sir David Amess. Three – Birmingham Erdington, Chester and Stretford & Urmston – saw LAB defending solid majorities and there was very little betting. The other two were on the same night in June when LAB took Wakefield…
The split based on party supported
The memory of GE1992 is still strong Last night we had the worst poll for the Tories in decades and yet the betting markets have not reacted as can be seen in the chart showing movements in the general election overall majority betting market. I must say that I expected to wake up this morning to see the betting numbers change a fair bit following the poll that has the Tories on just 19%. Sure the pollster involved is very…
Brexit “Wrong” edges up 2% to a 19% lead
As backing for Brexit declines so will his party Sunak has got better personal ratings than his two predecessors Johnson and Truss but the voting polls remain very poor and unless there is some improvement then the Tories will be out at the next general election. The party is not helped by the fact that their target to stay at Number 10 in terms of seats is considerably higher than for Labour. If Starmer doesn’t make the 326 seats required…
Is there any way back for Sunak’s party? The party started 2022 with average leads about 4%. Just compare that with what we are seeing at the moment. It is hard to argue anything other than the voting public is tired of the Tories and wants change and maybe the current trend will continue until that point in 2024 or sooner when whoever is the leader decides to go to the country. The Tories tried changing their leader and have…