After smashing the SNP in last year’s general election Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour won the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election quite unexpectedly and there’s quite a lot to unpack, in no particular order

1. Vote SNP to stop Reform might not be effective particularly in next year’s Holyrood election.
2. Labour won whilst going backwards in this election which really isn’t a position of strength.
3. The Reform surge in Scotland is real.
4. The SNP have now been in power continuously at Holyrood for a longer period than the Tories were in power at Westminster betwen 1979 and 1997, in that context this by-election result isn’t that bad and on last night’s swing Anas Sarwar isn’t becoming First Minister next year.
5. If things remain like they are then at Holyrood 2006 and Westminster in 2029 then a few percentage points might be difference between annihilation and winning power.
6. The betting markets really weren’t anticipating a Labour gain including the author of this piece who when it came to this by-election couldn’t have tipped more rubbish if you gave me a forklift truck but it is good to have the occasional losing bet so stop arrogance, hubris, and complacency, normally Scottish elections are so profitable for me.
7. Dear Betfair, in the name of everything holy can you please open some markets on next year’s devolved elections.
8. I think in Holyrood and at Westminster across Great Britain we are going to see more results like this one from 1992.

TSE