Both Trump and Biden stage Georgia rallies on the eve of today’s Georgia runoffs

Both Trump and Biden stage Georgia rallies on the eve of today’s Georgia runoffs

Trump’s was all about him and appeared like a series of whines particularly against the Republican governor of the state and, of course, the Secretary of State who stood up for democracy in face of huge pressure as we saw in the recording of a phone call he got from the outgoing president.

This contrasted with the President-elect who emphasised consistently the importance of the outcome for the future of the US.

There was a good analysis of both parties prospect on the previous thread by Seattle-based PBer Sea Shanty Irish.

1. turnout by Blacks (urban, suburban & rural) equals or exceeds (as in GE20) White turnout; historically Black turnout has slumped in runoffs BUT this time we have Stacey Abrams on our side AND Black voters know they’ve got leverage. 2. turnout by rural Whites slumps, at least somewhat, especially among, younger, less educated Trump supporter who are less-than-frequent voters in non-presidential elections, esp. in January. 3. turnout stays above average by urban and especially suburban Whites (and also Asians) in metro Atlanta, Athens (U of GA), Savannah and a few other concentrations around the Peach State; this is the true key to Democratic runoff victory. In the not-so-distant past, runoff vote in these parts was skewed to frequent voters who tilted (often strongly) Republican. Well, these votes still vote, but in 2020 the swung to the Democrats, and that looks to be continuing at least through the first week or so of 2021; least-ways it is absolutely critical to the prospects of both Ossoff and Warnock. So the “extra votes” for the Dems, are really FEWER votes for the Reps, thanks to Trumpsky’s suppression of his own vote AND his continuing alienation of swing voters, particularly in the suburbs BUT also in small towns and rural areas from Rabun Gap to the Chattahoochee River.

On Betfair the Democrats are favourites in both races.

Mike Smithson

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