After a terrible week for the White House Trump drops to just a 61% chance in the WH2020 nomination betting

After a terrible week for the White House Trump drops to just a 61% chance in the WH2020 nomination betting

While we have been almost totally focused on Brexit in the UK in Washington things are getting even worse for the president who is facing a whole series of probes relating to the 2016 campaign.

This week his former attorney, Mike Cohen, was sentenced to 3 years for his part including campaign finance violations by seeking to arrange payoffs to women that Trump was said to have been associated with. Cohen has also gone public in his attacks on Trump’s approach.

Also under investigation and might also be heading for jail is the president’s former campaign head and now we have a new development relating to his inauguration in January 2017. This is from ProPublica:

“When it came out this year that President Donald Trump’s inaugural committee raised and spent unprecedented amounts, people wondered where all that money went.

It turns out one beneficiary was Trump himself.

The inauguration paid the Trump Organization for rooms, meals and event space at the company’s Washington hotel, according to interviews as well as internal emails and receipts reviewed by WNYC and ProPublica…”

One of the events took place at the Trump Hotel and the question is whether Trump’s inaugural committee, which had been fundraising, were charged more than the going rate. The question that is being asked is whether donors giving money in return for possible political favours and whether foreign funds are involved.

I’ve got a long-standing bet, a lay on Betfair down to 1.41, that Trump won’t be the nominee. That’s now moved out to 1.61 and I’m not planning to close it down.

Meanwhile there’s almost a story a day coming out about the Muellar probe and at some stage, surely, the Republican party establishment is going to ask whether Trump is more trouble than he’s worth. Trump himself might decide to call it as day after WH2016 and he doesn’t appear to have a healthy life-style.

Mike Smithson

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