We all recall how in much of key state polling at WH2016 that Clinton was overstated thus giving us a very false impression of what was going to happen.
Much of this was not down to switching but to ostensible Clinton backers not bothering to turnout. Their problem was the candidate.
One of the insights I got from this excellent analysis of November’s US Midterm elections by NBC’s, Chris Matthews, is what this group of voters will do in the Midterms exactly six weeks on from today.
He’s suggesting that after watching Trump for nearly two years there will be no abstentions in November. The occupant of the White will be the turnout driver.
This sounds very plausible to me in the key races.