Why I can’t see a deal being agreed before the 1st of April 2019
Ladbrokes have a market up on a few Brexit related markets, out of these three I’m quite keen to take the 6/4 on there being no Brexit deal being agreed before the 1st of April 2019.
My logic behind this is that for a long time I’ve had the feeling that 2 years to do a deal is practically impossible even for a competent government with a decent majority. You cannot undo 46 years worth of laws, regulations, standards et al in 2 years, after all when the UK joined the EC we had a seven years of transition.
With stories emerging in recent days that ‘EU member states have sought legal advice from the European Commission over a possible extension of the two-year negotiation period set out in Article 50’ it is possible to see how the March 2019 exit date is pushed back to ensure we get a Brexit that works for the UK and the EU27.
Of course this is also a good tip if you think the Brexit talks fail, and given the current logjam over stage one over exit payment and the Irish border question it isn’t hard to see the talks failing and into recriminations about the looming disaster for all sides, and a no deal, no transition, disorderly Brexit will negatively impact all current members of the EU, not just us, though we will bear the brunt of it.
I don’t think that 6/4 will last long.
For the purposes of this bet Ladbrokes clearly state, A Brexit Deal = A withdrawal agreement under Article 50(2), approved by The Council of the European Union & UK Government.