Could matching EdM’s GE2015 vote share of 31.2% really stave off a challenge?
I broadly agree with the above analysis of that Team Corbyn’s basic objective is not to win the election but to do enough to keep their man leader. If LAB achieves a GB vote share of 31.2%, which is what the party did in 2015, then they hope the blame for the defeat can be put on the collapse of UKIP not JC.
You can see this being the spin that will develop on the afternoon of June 9th. Any argument that keeps the ultra left in charge of the party will be put forcefully.
So we’ll hear that this was not down to the beloved Jez but the collapse of UKIP.
Unfortunately Len McKluskey’s assertion this afternoon that holding 200 seats would be “a success for Labour is very much setting a different performance indicator for the party and Mr. Corbyn.
National vote share is irrelevant – what matters is the margin with CON and seats won/lost. Based on where we know at the moment it is hard to see CON getting fewer than 375 which is the threshold for a three figure majority.
If Corbyn doesn’t stand down on June 9th I expect a leadership challenge immediately by Yvette Cooper with the backing of large parts of what remains of the parliamentary Labour party.