Prior to June 23rd, there was a strong push from Remain that a Leave victory could lead to a united Ireland, Paddy Power have a market up on whether there will be a referendum on such a matter by the end of 2020.
A 2011 poll found ‘more than half of Catholics in Northern Ireland want the long-term future of the North to be as part of the United Kingdom, while only 16 per cent of the overall population favour a united Ireland.’
When coupled with Theresa May saying straight after she became Prime Minister, ‘The full title of my party is the Conservative and Unionist party and that word unionist is very important to me. It means we believe in the union, the precious, precious bond between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland,’ I don’t think there’s any appetite for a referendum or reunification, especially with Mrs May in charge, I cannot see her authorising a referendum, in fact prioritising keeping the United Kingdom together might be her route to avoid the ‘hard Brexit’ some leavers are advocating.
I’m normally not one to back 1/8 bets, especially ones that will take over four years to pay out, but with interest rates approaching negative rates, a 12.5% return in a little over four years might seem attractive to some.