Corbyn the early favourite in the Labour leadership contest – but Owen Smith strong

Corbyn the early favourite in the Labour leadership contest – but Owen Smith strong

2016 LAB Leadership Contest – Latest from Betfair

Above is updating live betting from the Betfair exchange on the fight for the LAB leadership which has been totally overshadowed by events in the Tory party and the new PM. To recap in case you haven’t noticed

On Monday Angela Eagle held a launch event only to find that almost the entire media walked out in the middle to cover the Andrea Leadsom (remember her?) announcement that she was quitting the CON race.

On Tuesday Labour’s NEC decided to allow Corbyn to be on the ballot without having to find 50 MPs to nominate him.

Yesterday Owen Smith entered the race and has quickly moved to second favourite.

It is very important to note that there are two sets of betting markets – those on the current contest and those on who the NEXT party leader will be. The former features Corbyn the latter doesn’t. So those betting on next leader would find that their wagers still stand even if Corbyn holds on. In the graphic above I focus on the former – Corbyn’s battle to survive.

There’s been quite a spurt of betting on the relatively unknown Owen Smith who appears to have a well organised campaign in place. He is now totally overshadowing Angela Eagle who triggered the challenge in the first place.

Smith has made demanding another Brexit referendum a key policy point. This is something that distinguishes him from Corbyn and could resonate with Labour party members who split 90% for REMAIN on June 23rd. Corbyn’s ambivalence during the campaign has been one of the factors driving the move to oust him.

The list of runners has not been finalised and it could be that there is just one anti-Corbyn contender.

Mike Smithson

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