— TSE (@TSEofPB) September 16, 2015
One of the underlying assumptions in the EU referendum was Labour and the Trade Union movement would be campaigning vigorously for the United Kingdom to remain a member however with the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour Leader that assumption needs to be revised. This morning’s Guardian reports “The prospects of Labour opposing British membership of the European Union, or adopting a position of neutrality, has grown markedly after the Trades Union Congress (TUC) voted to recommend Britain leave the EU if David Cameron negotiated a new European settlement that watered down workers’ rights.”
YouGov found that 74% of Corbyn supporters would vote to Remain in the EU so this could also be a major problem for the Labour party were Corbyn like in 1975 vote to leave the EU. Chuka Umunna left the shadow cabinet “because he had not received unambiguous assurances a Corbyn leadership would support Britain’s continued membership of the European Union in the coming referendum.” It would be some achievement for Mr Corbyn to make Labour more disunited than the Conservative Party on the European Union.
Were David Cameron to campaign for Remain and Leave won then that would almost certainly trigger his immediate resignation/removal as Conservative Party leader and thus First Lord of the Treasury, so the fate of the Prime Minister could well be in Mr Corbyn’s hands. Over to you Mr Corbyn.
Yesterday’s ICM poll gave Remain a 4% lead when you add in the potential for a very disunited Labour party on the EU referendum, Remain supporters should be very nervous about the outcome.
The best odds on Leave winning are 3/1 with Paddy Power.