SportingIndex open spread market on how many days Corbyn will last as leader. Opening 475 (cont) http://t.co/QVSaKrz0xB
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 14, 2015
The market opens at 475 days
The 475 days would mean that Corbyn’s stint as leader would end on the 31st of December 2016.Â Whilst discussing this market earlier on today with PBer Tissue Price his view on 475 was if pushed he’d sell, but it’s a risky one. I agree with him that it is risky for several reasons.
The main reason being Labour seldom replace poorly performing leaders. Secondly Corbyn also has a strong mandate that would be difficult for the parliamentary party to overturn. Thirdly the spreads at the last election like in 2010 can be very wrong. On May 7th the spreads indicated the Tories would be 25 seats ahead of Labour the reality was they ended up 99 seats ahead.
That we are discussing Corbyn’s exit date a little over forty eight hours after he was elected is an indication that his leadership has not begun auspiciously as the current shadow cabinet reshuffleÂ contretemps show. One of the Tory messages at the general election was Tory competence versus Labour chaos, this is only reinforcing that message for the Tories.
This market is currently not available online, but by contacting Sporting Index over the phone. Apologies SPIN have now said “We are not offering that market. Someone on a blog asked us for a price. It was a PR Exercise.”