Front Page of the Telegraph, looks like a Greek Tragedy for the Euro, will it lead to Acropolis Now? pic.twitter.com/sZnAD129v5
— TSE (@TSEofPB) June 15, 2015
How economic problems in Greece could mean a tragedy for some in British politics.
To we non economists, Greece and the Euro seems to be the most doomed relationship in that part of the world since Helen eloped with Paris, there is increased talk of a Grexit in recent days, so how will a Grexit impact on British politics?
There is speculation that the Greek contagion could spread to outside the Eurozone, and the Banking system, all of which could have a negative effect on the British economy which would impact on the In/Out referendum, so what are the likely scenarios? (I know there are other plausible scenarios, I’m merely looking at the most likely)
Scenario I – The EU does all kinds of everything to keep the UK In.
The Grand Fromages of the European Union decide that losing both Greece from the Euro, and The United Kingdom from the EU would send a terrible signal to the world about the European Union, so will do everything in their Â power to keep the UK inside the EU. Thus David Cameron gets everything from his renegotiation wish list, which the current polling shows would lead to the UK remaining in the EU.
Scenario II – European disharmony
The Grand Fromages of the European Union decide to focus upon their own problems and keep their own citizens happy, thus can’t and won’t give David Cameron anything he wants, so there is no meaningful renegotiation which leads to the UK leaving the EU.
Scenario III – Stick with nurse
We saw during the financial crisis back in 2008, Gordon Brown and Labour get a boost in the polls, just prior to RBS needing a bailout, the Tories led by 28%, within two months, that lead was down to 3%, as the old maxim ofÂ stick to nurse for fear of something worse kicked in. Â Nurse in this instance would be remaining in the European Union/backing whatever David Cameron and the government suggests.
Scenario IV – I’m a Sovereign Country get me out of here.
The voters sees the Eurozone as an economic basket case, and decide we want nothing to with this economic disaster, especially if we’re going to have to contribute to a bail out of Greece/The Eurozone via our EU membership, we’d rather go it alone.
I can see some of these scenarios occurring consecutively/concurrently, which makes for betting on theÂ In/Out referendum a challenge, it could also have a major impact on the Scottish Independence movement, all that is certain, a Grexit won’t only effect Greece or the Eurozone.