Re-shuffle betting – remember the dead heat rules

Re-shuffle betting – remember the dead heat rules

Baroness Warsi 3/1
Jeremy Hunt 5/1
Caroline Spelman 6/1
Cheryl Gillan 8/1
Ken Clarke 10/1
Theresa May 10/1
Lord Strathclyde 12/1
Andrew Lansley 14/1
Vince Cable 16/1
Michael Moore 16/1
William Hague 25/1
Owen Paterson 25/1
Nick Clegg 25/1
Ed Davey 33/1
Andrew Mitchell 33/1
Michael Gove 33/1
George Osborne 33/1
David Cameron 33/1
Iain Duncan Smith 40/1
Danny Alexander 40/1
Justine Greening 50/1
Eric Pickles 50/1
Philip Hammond 66/1

Who’ll be out in Dave’s first big shake-up?

Apart from the US election the big political betting story over the next six weeks will be who’ll be in and who’ll be out in Cameron’s first re-shuffle. There’ve been lots of reports that this’ll happen in thefirst week in September just before the commons returns.

Surprisingly the bookies have been reluctant to provide direct markets. I’d like to be wagering on one or two who I think will be promoted.

What we still do have is the next cabinet exit betting. You need to check the rules for each individual bookmaker but my reading is that Ladbrokes is one of the few to have provided for the consequences of more than one minister leaving the cabinet on a single day. The firm says quite specifically that in that eventuality the “dead heat” rules apply.

This means that if you’ve got, say, a £50 bet at evens that Jeremy Hunt will be out then your bet is split into the number of cabinet ministers leaving. In this case the firm would pay out one fifth of the bet. The rest of your stake would settled as a loser.

In the Hunt case you’d get £10 winnings and £10 stake back but you’d still be £30 out of pocket.

    So the best betting strategy is to steer clear of those at the top of the betting and see if you can find value amongst the longer priced options.

I’ve taken the 16/1 against Michael Moore because the word is that the yellows would like to have a woman amongst their cabinet ministers and Moore seems the most vulnerable.

So if Moore is amongst five ministers to exit on the same day then one fifth of your stake, £10, would be settled at 16/1. Your return would be £160 plus the part of your stake that has been allocated, £10, being returned.

Good luck.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Comments are closed.