Were the first signs in the daily Gallup tracking poll?
At 6pm UK time yesterday evening the daily national tracking poll came out and showed a big reverse in the way the GOP contenders were being viewed. Romney was down 4% on the day and Santorum was up 2%.
Because this poll is based on a five day rolling average it meant that that the reversal was even more marked based on the final day’s fieldwork. As I tweeted at the time – “Mitt lead down from 16% to 10%. Is something happening out there?”. Well from the Super Tuesday results out so far Santorum is out-performing the final state polls and Romney is under-performing.
Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Dakota are going Santorum’s way and there’s a tight finish in Ohio where, with 71% reporting, Santorum has a two point lead. [UPDATE 0418] It’s now looking as though Romney will just squeeze it in the state.
The big message is that this race is like it has always been – there’s little momentum from the last set of results.
If the Romney campaign thought they would wrap up this week – this is not happening
The night continues.