Super Tuesday – the night that’s not quite going to plan

Super Tuesday – the night that’s not quite going to plan

Were the first signs in the daily Gallup tracking poll?

At 6pm UK time yesterday evening the daily national tracking poll came out and showed a big reverse in the way the GOP contenders were being viewed. Romney was down 4% on the day and Santorum was up 2%.

Because this poll is based on a five day rolling average it meant that that the reversal was even more marked based on the final day’s fieldwork. As I tweeted at the time – “Mitt lead down from 16% to 10%. Is something happening out there?”. Well from the Super Tuesday results out so far Santorum is out-performing the final state polls and Romney is under-performing.

Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Dakota are going Santorum’s way and there’s a tight finish in Ohio where, with 71% reporting, Santorum has a two point lead. [UPDATE 0418] It’s now looking as though Romney will just squeeze it in the state.

The big message is that this race is like it has always been – there’s little momentum from the last set of results.

If the Romney campaign thought they would wrap up this week – this is not happening

The night continues.


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