What’ll this do to their leadership chances?

We are nearly eighteen months into the coalition government and we are starting to get speculation about the first re-shuffle. Who will be the losers and who will be the winners?

No doubt there’ll be lots coming out from the Tory side at their conference the week after next. As to the Lib Dems two of the names that are emerging are Clegg’s Chief Parliamentary and Political Adviser, Norman Lamb (left in the picture) and the Business department minister, Ed Davey.

In the leadership betting Ladbrokes make Lamb their 3rd favourite at 6/1 with Davey in sixth place at 14/1.

With the boundary changes and smaller yellow poll ratings a key factor will be the chances of being re-elected at the general election. Here it’s not just the notional numbers that matter but the effectiveness of their local party organisations.

On both counts Lamb (notional majority 11,000+) and Davey (notional majority 7,000+) look okay. The latter, in fact, saw a good by-election outcome in a tightly fought contest with the Tories last Thursday.

As to the re-shuffle losers the Times is suggesting behind the paywall that education minister, Sarah Teather, might be moved.

If Clegg did go before the general election I think Lamb might be in with a good shout. Davey would be a post general election contender.

@MikeSmithsonPB