What will the phone pollsters be saying?

What will the phone pollsters be saying?

Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD %
ICM/Guardian 23/01/11      
Populus/Times 24/10/10      
Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 12/12/10
ComRes/Independent 14/01/11 36 40 10
YouGov/Sun 24/01/11 37 42 11
Angus Reid 06/01/11 35 40 12
***PAPA*** LATEST 36.0 40.7 11.0

ICM and MORI expected today

One of the things that’s to be most regretted about current UK political polling has been the dramatic decline in the number of telephone surveys coming out.

The political world is so dominated by internet polling that when non-internet polls are published that it is something of a treat.

In the polling accuracy league table based on final general election surveys last May phone firms occupied five of the top six slots while online pollsters made up five of the bottom six.

As can be seen from the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average table the current ratings are based on just three polls – all of which were carried out online. We haven’t seen a Times/Populus survey since October while neither ICM or MORI has had a surveys that have been recent enough to be included in the PAPA calculation.

That, hopefully, will all change today. Both those firms carried out their January field-work over the weekend and both polls are expected.

Will they show the same sort of Labour lead that the online firms have found and will they have the yellows still languishing or can we expect an improvement on the record lows?

Mike Smithson

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