Boost for Tories in first post CSR phone poll

Boost for Tories in first post CSR phone poll

Poll/publication End date CON (%) LAB (%) LD (%)
ICM/NOTW 22/10/10 40 36 16
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 07/10/10 38 34 18
ICM/Guardian 29/09/10 35 37 18
ICM/Guardian 15/08/10 37 37 18
ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16
ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21
ICM/Guardian 23/05/10 39 32 21
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 13/05/10 38 33 21

And the LD total is sharply in contrast with YouGov

There’s a new ICM poll just out for tomorrow’s News of the World which will provide relief for both coalition partners following the big Osborne statement on Wednesday.

For the blues are in the 40s with ICM for only the second time since the general election. The yellows, meanwhile, drop two to 16% but that is way ahead of the 10% that the YouGov online daily poll was reporting on Thursday.

The share for Clegg’s party equals the lowest figure from ICM since the general election. The last occasion was in a survey immediately after the first Osborne budget in June when, incidentally YouGov also had them at the same level.

It’s Labour that will be worried most by these numbers. For instead, as had been widely hoped, being in the lead at this stage they are still behind by a reasonable margin.

This is despite the fact that in this latest survey findings about reaction to the DSR statement are negative for the coalition.

ICM has been operating in the same manner since the mid-1990s and has the best historical record with national polling of any of the firms.

UPDATE The online YouGov daily poll continues its very different picture particularly for the yellows:- CON 41%: LAB 40%: LD 10%.

SECOND UPDATE There’s a BPIX/YouGov poll in the Mail on Sunday which has CON 35%: LAB 37%: LD 10%. BPIX operates on the YouGov platform and was in ninth equal place alongside Angus Reid in the 2010 polling accuracy table. It is not part of the BPC and doesn’t make its data available.

THIRD UPDATE The 35-37-10 shares suggest a total for others of 18% – why is a much higher figure than we have seen from any pollster since the election. Normally pollsters show the party shares after taking out the don’t knows and those who refuse. I wonder whether the figures we see here include those two.

We might never know. BPIX has been publishing polls for six years and I have never seen a dataset.

Mike Smithson

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