MORI has Tories making progress in the marginals

MORI has Tories making progress in the marginals

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MORI Marginals poll 2005 Apr 7 Mar 22
CONSERVATIVES 31% 38% 37%
LABOUR 45% 41% 41%
LIB DEMS 17% 11% 11%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 . 5.5% 5%

There’s a new marginals poll from MORI for Reuters that has the Tories making a bit of progress on the last such survey a couple of weeks ago.

The poll ignores those seats where the Tories need a swing of less than 5% but focusses on those in the band up to 9%.

The critical numbers here are the change on what happened in the seats polled at the 2005 general election – and as can be seen the pollster has found a swing of 5.5% which compares with the 4% swing in the last national poll from the firm.

But without a new MORI national poll with which to compare it we cannot conclude that there is a differential – so this poll on its own tells us very little.

It’s all a bit pointless

Still the blues will regard this as progress.

Mike Smithson

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