Will the Tories get above 36% with Populus?

Will the Tories get above 36% with Populus?

Could we see support for “others” start to recede?

Siesta time on my Spanish holiday and a quick look at PB reveals that there’s a longing for a new poll so people can get a sense of whether things are changing.

By my reckoning the next main public poll from one of the mainstream pollsters should come from Populus in the Times tomorrow evening.

In June the firm came out with what proved to be the smallest Tory share – 36% – until the last poll, from ComRes, also had the same number.

The positive thing for the Tories about the last Populus poll was that because of the continuing massive “others” total they were still 12 points ahead of Labour – and if you were to express this in proportions there were three voters saying Tory to every two saying Labour. The Lib Dems were on a healthy 19%.

Anthony Wells has a good analysis of the big “others” numbers on UKPollingReport and concludes that it’s the expenses scandal that has kept this segment high. He’s almost certainly right.

Once that starts to recede who will get the benefit? Theoretically it should be all the mainstream parties but will one or two do better than the third. Has it hit and will it continue to hit Labour hardest because they are the party of government? We shall see.

I’m a great fan of Populus and am looking forward to their latest numbers.

Mike Smithson

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