Will Kathleen Sebelius become the punters’ choice?

Big changes in the betting on who will fill the V-P slot alongside Barack Obama following a statement within the past hour by Senator Jim Webb from Virginia.

In a statement Webb said: “Last week I communicated to Senator Obama and his presidential campaign my firm intention to remain in the United States Senate, where I believe I am best equipped to serve the people of Virginia and this country. Under no circumstances will I be a candidate for Vice President.” That sounds pretty definite. Maybe he’s been told by Barack that he won’t be chosen.

Webb had been at just over 3/1 on Betfair – tighter than Hillary Clinton and the governor of Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius. As I write you that’s shifted to about 10/1. This leaves Hillary in the favourite slot though my guess is that Sebelius will soon be where the money is going.

Last week Obama told a Missouri station: “I love Kathleen Sebelius. I think she is as talented a public official as there is right now. Integrity. Competence. She can work with all people of all walks of life, but I promised that I am not going to say anything about my vice president until I actually introduce my vice president.”

Earlier today Sibelius’s prospects were talked up in an article by the influential Walter Shapiro in this piece on Salon.

I think this is a very difficult market to bet on because the choice is in the hands of one man – and who knows what he could be thinking.

Mike Smithson