Competition: When will Labour lose its poll lead?

Competition: When will Labour lose its poll lead?

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    Can you predict the date and the pollster?

With Labour having established a significant margin in all the main polls since Gordon moved in can you predict when, if ever before the general election, a poll will show Brown’s party to be either level-pegging or with a deficit?

In the comment thread below please state, to the day, the actual date when this will happen and as a tie-breaker can you name the pollster? If you think that this is not going to happen mark your entry “general election day” and, as a tie-breaker, guess the closest you think the lead will be, on what date and from which pollster.

The date’s should refer to when the poll is actually published – not when it was carried out.

To distinguish entries from normal comments please put the word, in capitals, ENTRY, at the start of your post. Please file your entries 2359 on Tuesday.

This is restricted to the national voting intention figures from the five main firms which currently carry out surveys – YouGov, ICM, Populus, Communicate Research and Ipsos-Mori. To help you with the dates the following has been the normal schedule of polls.

YouGov, for the Telegraph, generally comes out on the final Friday of the month. The firm has also been doing surveys for the Sunday Times which have appeared mid-month.

Populus usually publish their monthly survey for the Times on the Tuesday after the first weekend of each month.

Communicate Research usually carries out its fieldwork for its monthly Independent survey over the final weekend of the month with publication on Tuesday or Wednesday of the following week.

ICM’S monthly Guardian surface usually takes place during the third or fourth weekend with publication the following Tuesday or Wednesday. It carries out polls for a range of Sunday papers on an intermittent basis.

monthly poll does not have a regular newspaper slot and can appear at any time in the final fotnight.

There is prize of a signed copy of my book “The Politcal Punter” for the winning entry.

Mike Smithson

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