But good news for whoever wins the Lib Dem contest
Two new polls this morning paint a very different picture of how the Tories and Labour are doing but both show a Lib Dem recovery.
So with only five day left before their leadership contest ends the Lib Dems will be pleased to see that all the pollsters are now showing significant recoveries compared with what things were like in the immediate aftermath of the Charles Kennedy, Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes revelations.
The YouGov changes are broadly in line with what ICM recorded in the Guardian on Tuesday – the Tories staying relatively constant but Labour slipping back as the Lib Dems recover.
Mori continues its reputation as the most variable of the pollsters. Its last four polls have shown: November LAB+10, December LAB -9: January 17th LAB level: January January 23rd LAB -2.
Pollster variations since November 2005
Mori LAB lead/deficit in a range from +10 to -9
YouGov LAB lead/deficit in a range +2 to -2
Populus LAB lead/deficit in a range +8 to -1
ICM LAB lead/deficit in a range +5 to -4
The main reason for the differences is down to the methodologies the pollsters use: