Will the pinks help the blues?
One of the areas where the coming General Election will be unique is that the number of candidates from the main parties who are openly gay will be at the highest level ever.
Perhaps surprisingly there are about twenty Conservative PPCs who have declared themselves including a number in target seats. One of them is Iain Dale in North Norfolk and a regular contributor to the site.
Will their declarations of their sexual orientation cost them votes or have we reached a stage where this does not matter? Even more significantly could the acceptance by the Tories of a pluralistic society actually help the party overall?
Could it be, even, that gay candidates actually do better than others because the “pink” vote will be more likely to vote for them rather than stick with their normal allegiance?
It will be interesting on May 6 to assess whether this has been a negative or a positive. We do not expect any specific betting markets on this issue.
The spread markets, as we predicted, have move sharply against the Tories following the weekend’s Populus poll in marginal seats and the defection to Labour of former minister, Robert Jackson.
IG Index have LAB 354 – 361: CON 189 – 196: LD 69 – 73
The Spreadfair prices are LAB 359 – 363: CON 186 – 190: LD 68 – 71.9
Although the Spreadfair spread is narrower IG have now reduced their margin and you do not have to pay a commission.