Punters on Labour should bet now – others should wait
Whether or not you buy our thinking that the coming General Election is much more open than received opinion would have it you can still, we hope, optimise your gambling by following our betting theory.
This is that the market – which ultimately is determined by the actions of all punters – becomes less sophisticated and less knowledgeable the closer we get to polling day as more punters come in and more money is piled on. And as political expertise of the punter pool dillutes the less sceptical it will be of opinion polls and other signs of what is actually happening. Thus the uniform national swing seat predictors, which we expect many parts of the media to be using, will be believed much more by those gambling on the outcome.
Thus we expect the general market move to Labour to certainly hold firm and most likely to be magnified the closer we get to the actual day.
Profitable betting is more than predicting the outcome – it’s about getting the best return, and that comes down to timing.
So at the moment the current spread range of LAB 345-353: CON 200-208 and LD 71-75 Commons seats is broadly in the middle of what knowledgeable opinion of those who comment on this site suggest. By election day, if the polls stay as they are, we would expect to see odds and spread prices much closer to the Martin Baxter uniform national swing projection than to our formula.
So if you think that Labour is going get the majority of 60 that the current BUY price suggests then put your money on now. If you are less certain about Labour’s chances you will probably get better value by waiting. You will also reduce some of the risk.
The latest Labour seat market prices are:-
360 + 6/5
0 – 335 6/4
352 – 359 6/1
344 – 351 13/2
336 – 343 15/2
“….a gambler, not a prophet” (Nick Cohen – Observer)
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